{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80c92801-99c9-45a0-8985-c564aae4ce1e", "symbol": "605122", "name": "Chongqing Sifang New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.205, "architecture_energy": 58.634, "architecture_maturity": 25.984, "architecture_confidence": 86.729, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 15.91, "upward_expansion": 9.8, "deceleration": 49.19, "rotation_down": 66.02, "downward_expansion": 83.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.432667, 10.712545, 11.725762, 12.227204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.88, "trend_reference": 12.76, "distance_from_trend": -0.147335, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.455718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.379358, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199411, "excess_performance": -0.156208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147335, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057607, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126506, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199411, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249727, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11899480, "relative_activity": 0.932883, "balance": 0.249727, "dry_up": 1.262694, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09177, "annualized_volatility": 0.351388, "from_high_reference": -0.287025, "from_low_reference": 0.173679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.76, "fair_value_reference": 12.455718, "structural_low": 9.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.035347, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.027274, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.20888, "worst_return": -0.15354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.036866, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.025979, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.2274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019713, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.075737, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.300952, "worst_return": -0.232051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -16.739657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.706866, "energy": 84.621486, "activity_lines": [ 10.877333, 11.510182, 12.405095, 12.746946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.59, "volume": 21177281, "typical_volume": 12505577.75, "trend": 12.953333, "fair_value": 12.516472, "relative_strength": -25.037406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.385936, "energy": 89.11913, "activity_lines": [ 10.398667, 11.037455, 12.094619, 12.521978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.34, "volume": 14444200, "typical_volume": 12730544.8, "trend": 12.835667, "fair_value": 12.485068, "relative_strength": -18.869295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.901951, "energy": 79.780551, "activity_lines": [ 10.303333, 10.789636, 11.876143, 12.353376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.88, "volume": 11899480, "typical_volume": 12755602.05, "trend": 12.76, "fair_value": 12.455718, "relative_strength": -16.379358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.204592, "energy": 58.633591, "activity_lines": [ 10.432667, 10.712545, 11.725762, 12.227204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }