{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80cb1537-b111-4989-95ae-ef41c8fc666f", "symbol": "NOVA", "name": "Nova Empire Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.665, "architecture_energy": 76.088, "architecture_maturity": 67.363, "architecture_confidence": 83.678, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 10.53, "upward_expansion": 16.03, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 74.7, "downward_expansion": 89.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.116667, 6.423636, 6.760238, 7.056452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.85, "trend_reference": 7.471667, "distance_from_trend": -0.217042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.546779, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.387228, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.091569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307692, "excess_performance": -0.500017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.387228, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117229, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.390916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.059706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14300, "relative_activity": 0.676923, "balance": 0.059706, "dry_up": 3.666272, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100592, "annualized_volatility": 0.582508, "from_high_reference": -0.468182, "from_low_reference": 0.063636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.471667, "fair_value_reference": 9.546779, "structural_low": 5.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.413793, "median_excess_return": -0.014534, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.613333, "worst_return": -0.205263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.035651, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.28866, "worst_return": -0.139785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.018416, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.391753, "worst_return": -0.158192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088785, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.086022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 6.896667, 6.952727, 7.146905, 7.394301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.9, "volume": 281500, "typical_volume": 21320.0, "trend": 7.673333, "fair_value": 9.602902, "relative_strength": -41.408972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.489809, "energy": 52.194036, "activity_lines": [ 6.573333, 6.747273, 7.005714, 7.271828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.05, "volume": 12500, "typical_volume": 21725.0, "trend": 7.565, "fair_value": 9.576062, "relative_strength": -38.341089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.259595, "energy": 57.182229, "activity_lines": [ 6.373333, 6.591818, 6.888571, 7.167097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.85, "volume": 14300, "typical_volume": 21125.0, "trend": 7.471667, "fair_value": 9.546779, "relative_strength": -39.091569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.665158, "energy": 76.087668, "activity_lines": [ 6.116667, 6.423636, 6.760238, 7.056452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }