{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80cd58c4-7562-4f41-9835-092f6fb8ed3f", "symbol": "BTC", "name": "M\u00e9lanion BTC Equities Universe UCITS ETF EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.97, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.63, "architecture_energy": 34.126, "architecture_maturity": 41.782, "architecture_confidence": 64.39, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.2, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 64.65, "rotation_down": 66.7, "downward_expansion": 43.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.167067, 16.044509, 16.581609, 16.109122 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.77, "trend_reference": 15.7408, "distance_from_trend": -0.061674, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.733051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075508, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.880968, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057266, "excess_performance": -0.113626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061674, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075508, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.513508, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1509, "relative_activity": 0.627795, "balance": 0.513508, "dry_up": 1.876521, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11603, "annualized_volatility": 0.578137, "from_high_reference": -0.4725, "from_low_reference": 0.271084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.7408, "fair_value_reference": 13.733051, "structural_low": 11.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047057, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002073, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.412235, "worst_return": -0.285491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063995, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.101179, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.308725, "worst_return": -0.437649, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.103197, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.198511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.509035, "worst_return": -0.12548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002686, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175243, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.167784, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.186087, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.872724, "energy": 76.609912, "activity_lines": [ 18.935067, 18.155455, 16.486238, 16.08052 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 17.955999, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 1879.95, "trend": 15.943267, "fair_value": 13.483301, "relative_strength": -8.048458, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.770766, "energy": 50.683854, "activity_lines": [ 18.653733, 18.254291, 16.728714, 16.207944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.705999, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 1698.45, "trend": 15.911133, "fair_value": 13.533801, "relative_strength": -16.650564, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.780989, "energy": 37.455667, "activity_lines": [ 17.9828, 18.085709, 16.833162, 16.257153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.614, "volume": 3076, "typical_volume": 1836.75, "trend": 15.8938, "fair_value": 13.575301, "relative_strength": -16.458226, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.501174, "energy": 25.209512, "activity_lines": [ 17.471733, 17.883163, 16.916819, 16.302499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.804, "volume": 8974, "typical_volume": 2185.05, "trend": 15.854733, "fair_value": 13.610211, "relative_strength": -24.011469, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.24797, "energy": 20.526666, "activity_lines": [ 16.409866, 17.310509, 16.814095, 16.232189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.974, "volume": 953, "typical_volume": 2130.95, "trend": 15.8504, "fair_value": 13.651654, "relative_strength": -17.530451, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.09623, "energy": 25.116653, "activity_lines": [ 16.019733, 16.992582, 16.816781, 16.239884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.878, "volume": 6606, "typical_volume": 2396.45, "trend": 15.8244, "fair_value": 13.691103, "relative_strength": -23.434166, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.362112, "energy": 28.868158, "activity_lines": [ 15.5088, 16.496691, 16.707428, 16.177148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.77, "volume": 1509, "typical_volume": 2403.65, "trend": 15.7408, "fair_value": 13.733051, "relative_strength": -25.880968, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.629887, "energy": 34.125684, "activity_lines": [ 15.167067, 16.044509, 16.581609, 16.109122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }