{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80d27cb7-5eed-446f-81c1-6dd9788698be", "symbol": "000503", "name": "China Reform Health Management and Services Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.984, "architecture_energy": 20.711, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.824, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.63, "rotation_up": 34.83, "upward_expansion": 24.19, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 27.8, "downward_expansion": 60.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.046, 6.819636, 6.992429, 7.325333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.39, "trend_reference": 7.935, "distance_from_trend": -0.068683, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.905321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.253936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.792715, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.217161, "excess_performance": -0.224561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068683, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.253936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139403, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217161, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111025893, "relative_activity": 1.728726, "balance": 0.542917, "dry_up": 1.935263, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08244, "annualized_volatility": 0.389382, "from_high_reference": -0.410686, "from_low_reference": 0.211475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.935, "fair_value_reference": 9.905321, "structural_low": 6.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.008837, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.027206, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.606723, "worst_return": -0.219842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.040407, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.016636, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.056604, "worst_return": -0.229045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.166746, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.108775, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.631841, "worst_return": -0.257618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.258012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104752, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.101059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.647423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059172, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", 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"activity_lines": [ 6.472, 6.742545, 7.163, 7.624366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.43, "volume": 76825359, "typical_volume": 51715748.5, "trend": 8.133667, "fair_value": 9.993141, "relative_strength": -30.148889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.544997, "energy": 69.769612, "activity_lines": [ 6.420667, 6.636545, 7.055286, 7.508495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.2, "volume": 130959833, "typical_volume": 54345947.7, "trend": 8.030667, "fair_value": 9.958013, "relative_strength": -31.90744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.843855, "energy": 63.85075, "activity_lines": [ 6.328, 6.518, 6.93881, 7.383742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.72, "volume": 178350976, "typical_volume": 61098130.2, "trend": 7.984667, "fair_value": 9.933141, "relative_strength": -12.927593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.586847, "energy": 29.430164, "activity_lines": [ 6.787333, 6.703091, 6.979381, 7.363699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.39, "volume": 111025893, "typical_volume": 64224111.3, "trend": 7.935, "fair_value": 9.905321, "relative_strength": -19.792715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.984418, "energy": 20.71114, "activity_lines": [ 7.046, 6.819636, 6.992429, 7.325333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }