{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80debe33-9e6b-48cf-9262-f30c0504217b", "symbol": "002196", "name": "Zhejiang Founder Motor Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.48, "architecture_energy": 72.435, "architecture_maturity": 31.048, "architecture_confidence": 81.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 10.27, "upward_expansion": 16.32, "deceleration": 38.03, "rotation_down": 71.81, "downward_expansion": 89.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.634, 11.339455, 12.488048, 13.162258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.12, "trend_reference": 14.131333, "distance_from_trend": -0.213096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.580128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.779602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.337306, "excess_performance": -0.344706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032984, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296018, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.563446, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.337306, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.628789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143925898, "relative_activity": 0.952879, "balance": 1.628789, "dry_up": 0.789732, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155783, "annualized_volatility": 0.610425, "from_high_reference": -0.432653, "from_low_reference": 0.319098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.131333, "fair_value_reference": 8.580128, "structural_low": 9.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.012407, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.00871, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.15231, "worst_return": -0.202136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.053789, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.020234, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.423077, "worst_return": -0.151631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02372, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02557, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.423077, "worst_return": -0.10582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.787928, "energy": 57.748488, "activity_lines": [ 12.712, 13.218364, 13.723762, 14.199247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.21, "volume": 107731394, "typical_volume": 154629617.9, "trend": 14.478, "fair_value": 8.52359, "relative_strength": -19.517647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.92526, "energy": 68.044414, "activity_lines": [ 11.878, 12.566727, 13.354571, 13.919032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.71, "volume": 109077119, "typical_volume": 149804149.6, "trend": 14.392333, "fair_value": 8.538782, "relative_strength": -23.631216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.362505, "energy": 71.056311, "activity_lines": [ 11.028, 11.912545, 12.969667, 13.611419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.6, "volume": 116400140, "typical_volume": 148645446.1, "trend": 14.289667, "fair_value": 8.556859, "relative_strength": -15.400872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.391669, "energy": 75.492954, "activity_lines": [ 10.692, 11.522909, 12.695143, 13.366753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.12, "volume": 143925898, "typical_volume": 151043224.6, "trend": 14.131333, "fair_value": 8.580128, "relative_strength": -15.779602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.479689, "energy": 72.435229, "activity_lines": [ 10.634, 11.339455, 12.488048, 13.162258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }