{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80ed8abf-6414-486e-a238-e2aa906533f7", "symbol": "LUMEN", "name": "LumenRadio AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.081, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.243, "architecture_energy": 79.019, "architecture_maturity": 16.18, "architecture_confidence": 80.124, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.49, "rotation_up": 8.57, "upward_expansion": 16.89, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 82.52, "downward_expansion": 94.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.226667, 57.414546, 60.638096, 60.852259 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 53.200001, "trend_reference": 60.956667, "distance_from_trend": -0.127249, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.094231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.396101, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.471046, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136364, "excess_performance": -0.197858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.396101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235624, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.107511, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29288, "relative_activity": 1.372044, "balance": 0.107511, "dry_up": 1.760473, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075766, "annualized_volatility": 0.34295, "from_high_reference": -0.256983, "from_low_reference": 0.127119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.956667, "fair_value_reference": 88.094231, "structural_low": 50.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 61.360001, 63.538183, 63.393334, 62.402366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 60.200001, "volume": 8794, "typical_volume": 17405.9, "trend": 61.133334, "fair_value": 90.199359, "relative_strength": -3.985259, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.758914, "energy": 29.376423, "activity_lines": [ 60.613334, 62.69091, 63.214762, 62.350753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.400002, "volume": 72242, "typical_volume": 19792.65, "trend": 61.246667, "fair_value": 89.698077, "relative_strength": -7.350045, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.62956, "energy": 37.149563, "activity_lines": [ 59.373335, 61.432728, 62.741429, 62.109893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.599998, "volume": 24908, "typical_volume": 20337.1, "trend": 61.266667, "fair_value": 89.163462, "relative_strength": -9.926243, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.534018, "energy": 50.880948, "activity_lines": [ 58.293333, 60.203637, 62.213334, 61.810108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.400002, "volume": 23880, "typical_volume": 21080.1, "trend": 61.18, "fair_value": 88.627564, "relative_strength": -14.302583, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.249179, "energy": 59.899796, "activity_lines": [ 56.800001, 58.796364, 61.478572, 61.367097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.200001, "volume": 29288, "typical_volume": 21346.25, "trend": 60.956667, "fair_value": 88.094231, "relative_strength": -17.471046, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.243077, "energy": 79.01882, "activity_lines": [ 55.226667, 57.414546, 60.638096, 60.852259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }