{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80f2848b-ebf9-4a5b-b3d8-91c6a91607e5", "symbol": "FINSW", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Financials UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.639, "architecture_energy": 85.493, "architecture_maturity": 33.498, "architecture_confidence": 75.655, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 84.87, "upward_expansion": 96.12, "deceleration": 42.32, "rotation_down": 10.47, "downward_expansion": 18.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 408.569332, 401.865234, 387.665084, 378.099274 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 412.309998, "trend_reference": 368.551999, "distance_from_trend": 0.11873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 306.160449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346712, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.180355, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.132801, "excess_performance": 0.079489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11781, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071804, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047437, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132801, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.125084, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 774, "relative_activity": 1.671887, "balance": 3.125084, "dry_up": 1.78421, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018182, "annualized_volatility": 0.118145, "from_high_reference": -0.010773, "from_low_reference": 0.252305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 368.551999, "fair_value_reference": 306.160449, "structural_low": 332.979004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.023027, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.007198, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.102929, "worst_return": -0.122444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025237, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.012947, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.123031, "worst_return": -0.079965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.110753, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.062483, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.197371, "worst_return": -0.102127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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404.670013, "volume": 777, "typical_volume": 616.4, "trend": 364.177833, "fair_value": 302.503083, "relative_strength": 10.646919, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.258759, "energy": 96.075727, "activity_lines": [ 398.157334, 388.867888, 376.011546, 369.60187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 408.869995, "volume": 688, "typical_volume": 585.25, "trend": 365.674066, "fair_value": 303.703263, "relative_strength": 11.046716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.173436, "energy": 95.749363, "activity_lines": [ 402.962667, 393.906142, 380.114346, 372.485235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 407.589996, "volume": 1065, "typical_volume": 490.45, "trend": 367.208332, "fair_value": 304.913577, "relative_strength": 8.70523, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.330298, "energy": 91.218644, "activity_lines": [ 405.690666, 397.813361, 383.820827, 375.189489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 412.309998, "volume": 774, "typical_volume": 462.95, "trend": 368.551999, "fair_value": 306.160449, "relative_strength": 7.180355, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.639449, "energy": 85.492696, "activity_lines": [ 408.569332, 401.865234, 387.665084, 378.099274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }