{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80f429ce-8580-433e-8b38-d4afd31492c3", "symbol": "01009T", "name": "O-Bank Number One Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.012, "architecture_energy": 51.381, "architecture_maturity": 89.212, "architecture_confidence": 88.693, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.51, "rotation_up": 21.95, "upward_expansion": 5.79, "deceleration": 60.33, "rotation_down": 59.45, "downward_expansion": 79.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.68, 5.693636, 5.709429, 5.728206 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.67, "trend_reference": 5.798956, "distance_from_trend": -0.022238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.736965, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158375, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.39176, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071162, "excess_performance": -0.450474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060157, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158375, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002017, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.353918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077037, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071162, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483551, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51000, "relative_activity": 0.108626, "balance": 0.483551, "dry_up": 1.627263, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008004, "annualized_volatility": 0.132754, "from_high_reference": -0.213576, "from_low_reference": 0.036842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.798956, "fair_value_reference": 6.736965, "structural_low": 5.468527, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.001745, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.046005, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.080247, "worst_return": -0.0837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.280559, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.101852, "worst_return": -0.141401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.005105, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.481611, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.131191, "worst_return": -0.141401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.148906, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 7.289436, "volume": 31000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 7.289436, "volume": 173000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 7.289436, "volume": 116000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": 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"2026-08-07", "close": 5.67, "volume": 51000, "typical_volume": 469500.0, "trend": 5.798956, "fair_value": 6.736965, "relative_strength": -35.39176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.012389, "energy": 51.381215, "activity_lines": [ 5.68, 5.693636, 5.709429, 5.728206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }