{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80f7259a-73cc-41b5-9381-d636734fd0a8", "symbol": "600362", "name": "Jiangxi Copper Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.288, "architecture_energy": 10.471, "architecture_maturity": 39.568, "architecture_confidence": 52.596, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.05, "rotation_up": 24.74, "upward_expansion": 14.4, "deceleration": 41.6, "rotation_down": 31.53, "downward_expansion": 62.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.590593, 43.991791, 44.410576, 45.628266 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.580002, "trend_reference": 48.459508, "distance_from_trend": 0.023122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.894945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.777383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.998512, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218228, "excess_performance": -0.175024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013155, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.777383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122281, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.159985, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218228, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.919599, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 357112803, "relative_activity": 1.718801, "balance": 0.919599, "dry_up": 1.46563, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115181, "annualized_volatility": 0.625497, "from_high_reference": -0.298727, "from_low_reference": 1.233411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.459508, "fair_value_reference": 27.894945, "structural_low": 37.459999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.010604, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.016459, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.233997, "worst_return": -0.159506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00572, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02792, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.519002, "worst_return": -0.173653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095987, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040444, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.480376, "worst_return": -0.236596, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.616152, "energy": 62.123842, "activity_lines": [ 41.891864, 43.217713, 44.329365, 46.32931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.5, "volume": 360247139, "typical_volume": 199233847.55, "trend": 48.805175, "fair_value": 27.529742, "relative_strength": 4.75963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.473944, "energy": 50.829789, "activity_lines": [ 41.504621, 42.940345, 44.059864, 45.923922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.279999, "volume": 203411523, "typical_volume": 199761083.4, "trend": 48.637508, "fair_value": 27.691194, "relative_strength": 5.285142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.510814, "energy": 37.163462, "activity_lines": [ 42.047406, 42.875158, 43.917458, 45.56746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.580002, "volume": 357112803, "typical_volume": 207768554.55, "trend": 48.459508, "fair_value": 27.894945, "relative_strength": 15.998512, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.288309, "energy": 10.470508, "activity_lines": [ 44.590593, 43.991791, 44.410576, 45.628266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }