{ "ticker": { "uuid": "80fe1174-c805-4142-9257-7d8a46a93816", "symbol": "ALGS", "name": "Aligos Therapeutics\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.445, "architecture_energy": 48.659, "architecture_maturity": 62.069, "architecture_confidence": 86.365, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.19, "rotation_up": 17.93, "upward_expansion": 10.58, "deceleration": 40.78, "rotation_down": 54.91, "downward_expansion": 76.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.014, 5.237273, 5.516167, 5.883108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.59, "trend_reference": 6.394833, "distance_from_trend": -0.125857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.445, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.584232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.99574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236339, "excess_performance": -0.423792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.584232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.594576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 917516, "relative_activity": 0.873627, "balance": 2.594576, "dry_up": 0.578851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182133, "annualized_volatility": 0.873778, "from_high_reference": -0.591649, "from_low_reference": 0.404523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.394833, "fair_value_reference": 13.445, "structural_low": 3.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.03, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.065004, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 1.644138, "worst_return": -0.339118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003442, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 4.118159, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.142995, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.144809, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.297946, "worst_return": -0.430845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.590909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.680734, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.474642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": 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"energy": 19.205419, "activity_lines": [ 5.891333, 5.686182, 5.945333, 6.280086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.08, "volume": 554456, "typical_volume": 997938.65, "trend": 6.671833, "fair_value": 13.678429, "relative_strength": -53.123483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.532876, "energy": 39.999695, "activity_lines": [ 5.331333, 5.406909, 5.735071, 6.099903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.23, "volume": 500531, "typical_volume": 1013783.85, "trend": 6.5085, "fair_value": 13.563718, "relative_strength": -51.121089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.353102, "energy": 52.160057, "activity_lines": [ 4.901333, 5.184545, 5.552905, 5.942366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.59, "volume": 917516, "typical_volume": 1050237.35, "trend": 6.394833, "fair_value": 13.445, "relative_strength": -37.99574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.445159, "energy": 48.659488, "activity_lines": [ 5.014, 5.237273, 5.516167, 5.883108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }