{ "ticker": { "uuid": "810322b0-a1e6-4f9d-bac7-94ac30904386", "symbol": "XBP", "name": "XBP Europe Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.807, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.626, "architecture_energy": 16.71, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.986, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.69, "rotation_up": 28.86, "upward_expansion": 24.92, "deceleration": 52.98, "rotation_down": 18.57, "downward_expansion": 46.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.968367, 2.776564, 2.685388, 3.172261 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.0931, "trend_reference": 4.195633, "distance_from_trend": -0.262781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.942851, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.793005, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.846012, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.613845, "excess_performance": -0.801299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.262781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.793005, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042777, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.49846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.613845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.389823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45032, "relative_activity": 0.524786, "balance": 1.389823, "dry_up": 1.473613, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218892, "annualized_volatility": 1.117512, "from_high_reference": -0.762069, "from_low_reference": 0.54655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.195633, "fair_value_reference": 14.942851, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.04803, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.016899, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.315842, "worst_return": -0.430094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.265528, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.353188, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.158363, "worst_return": -0.426304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.512295, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.668215, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.477327, "worst_return": -0.547263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.763366, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -1.098785, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.763366, "worst_return": -0.763366, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.19604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097893, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.510363, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.298617, "active": true } ], "chart_path": 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2.804667, 2.625818, 2.669578, 3.360947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.86, "volume": 93552, "typical_volume": 87785.65, "trend": 4.368197, "fair_value": 15.027492, "relative_strength": -51.988986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.174057, "energy": 17.578479, "activity_lines": [ 2.858667, 2.681636, 2.659526, 3.254526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.0931, "volume": 45032, "typical_volume": 85810.2, "trend": 4.195633, "fair_value": 14.942851, "relative_strength": -49.846012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.625624, "energy": 16.710215, "activity_lines": [ 2.968367, 2.776564, 2.685388, 3.172261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }