{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81067efd-8baf-4109-9a0a-bd3e5c442f78", "symbol": "GRA", "name": "NanoXplore Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.315, "architecture_energy": 56.213, "architecture_maturity": 87.702, "architecture_confidence": 88.704, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 25.67, "upward_expansion": 9.6, "deceleration": 59.65, "rotation_down": 54.64, "downward_expansion": 82.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.563333, 1.580545, 1.72819, 1.821871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.65, "trend_reference": 1.968, "distance_from_trend": -0.161585, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.363109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.514872, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.303797, "excess_performance": -0.424219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161585, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301767, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303797, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.9936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 270600, "relative_activity": 0.315431, "balance": 1.9936, "dry_up": 0.864462, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089044, "annualized_volatility": 0.40984, "from_high_reference": -0.505988, "from_low_reference": 0.195652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.968, "fair_value_reference": 2.363109, "structural_low": 1.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.006195, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028167, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.273885, "worst_return": -0.298551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032028, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.078943, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.235669, "worst_return": -0.274554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.086957, "worst_return": -0.355731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004292, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019108, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045296, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185567, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030702, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13253, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.214286, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.77, "volume": 236300, "typical_volume": 243320.0, "trend": 3.009667, "fair_value": 3.89141, "relative_strength": -8.351074, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.506667, 1.600545, 1.775429, 1.873269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.59, "volume": 993900, "typical_volume": 885855.0, "trend": 2.002667, "fair_value": 2.370801, "relative_strength": -36.855318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.681868, "energy": 71.317828, "activity_lines": [ 1.522667, 1.582, 1.74819, 1.844624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.65, "volume": 270600, "typical_volume": 857875.0, "trend": 1.968, "fair_value": 2.363109, "relative_strength": -35.514872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.315047, "energy": 56.212523, "activity_lines": [ 1.563333, 1.580545, 1.72819, 1.821871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }