{ "ticker": { "uuid": "810c5bc2-02a7-44e2-bbe5-c3bea334156f", "symbol": "002893", "name": "Beijing Jingneng Thermal Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.905, "architecture_energy": 45.99, "architecture_maturity": 36.016, "architecture_confidence": 87.384, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.87, "rotation_up": 21.24, "upward_expansion": 6.4, "deceleration": 57.33, "rotation_down": 55.29, "downward_expansion": 79.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.546667, 9.619786, 10.137006, 10.510098 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.75, "trend_reference": 10.946747, "distance_from_trend": -0.109324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.615493, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.098339, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.155844, "excess_performance": -0.163244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073285, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081531, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049439, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.852425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33298625, "relative_activity": 0.474689, "balance": 1.852425, "dry_up": 0.510376, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0842, "annualized_volatility": 0.417688, "from_high_reference": -0.330357, "from_low_reference": 0.089385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.946747, "fair_value_reference": 10.615493, "structural_low": 8.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.01464, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.004772, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.260101, "worst_return": -0.158197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013423, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.040294, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.118312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051512, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.054095, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.553621, "worst_return": -0.136784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.969668, "energy": 78.815133, "activity_lines": [ 9.718564, 10.230471, 10.655385, 10.92657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.28, "volume": 32238081, "typical_volume": 71903259.4, "trend": 11.12408, "fair_value": 10.692642, "relative_strength": -19.340038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.908625, "energy": 79.846404, "activity_lines": [ 9.536667, 9.993556, 10.489041, 10.800952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.27, "volume": 50602391, "typical_volume": 72352730.7, "trend": 11.049413, "fair_value": 10.673862, "relative_strength": -19.208686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.004604, "energy": 76.299554, "activity_lines": [ 9.400667, 9.786085, 10.33422, 10.681334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.64, "volume": 27069049, "typical_volume": 72380085.7, "trend": 10.994747, "fair_value": 10.636674, "relative_strength": -14.215767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.349088, "energy": 59.86743, "activity_lines": [ 9.449333, 9.675171, 10.225922, 10.590404 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.75, "volume": 33298625, "typical_volume": 70148313.35, "trend": 10.946747, "fair_value": 10.615493, "relative_strength": -17.098339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.904903, "energy": 45.990046, "activity_lines": [ 9.546667, 9.619786, 10.137006, 10.510098 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }