{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81110885-3cc0-4633-a018-e4603d392c53", "symbol": "SISB", "name": "SISB Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.555, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.891, "architecture_energy": 37.213, "architecture_maturity": 28.094, "architecture_confidence": 87.917, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.01, "rotation_up": 19.64, "upward_expansion": 8.7, "deceleration": 41.95, "rotation_down": 55.65, "downward_expansion": 75.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.873333, 9.96, 9.984286, 10.132338 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.75, "trend_reference": 10.275867, "distance_from_trend": -0.051175, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.433892, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.56539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.104424, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.019772, "excess_performance": -0.212097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051175, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.56539, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022363, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241044, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053447, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019772, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742117, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32113900, "relative_activity": 2.892162, "balance": 0.742117, "dry_up": 2.345366, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046154, "annualized_volatility": 0.353685, "from_high_reference": -0.350677, "from_low_reference": 0.090307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.275867, "fair_value_reference": 22.433892, "structural_low": 9.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.037138, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.221154, "worst_return": -0.213942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.032842, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.140083, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.318681, "worst_return": -0.318291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026738, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.251551, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.577587, "worst_return": -0.377342, "sufficient": true }, { 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10.216667, 10.048182, 10.103316, 10.260178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.3, "volume": 21918800, "typical_volume": 9453840.0, "trend": 10.378568, "fair_value": 22.880488, "relative_strength": -24.26094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.660735, "energy": 20.143014, "activity_lines": [ 10.31, 10.104545, 10.104048, 10.253812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.65, "volume": 34186300, "typical_volume": 9916445.0, "trend": 10.343175, "fair_value": 22.727718, "relative_strength": -28.205051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.182273, "energy": 28.728693, "activity_lines": [ 10.14, 10.039091, 10.051667, 10.206808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.75, "volume": 15950600, "typical_volume": 10010540.0, "trend": 10.311115, "fair_value": 22.577078, "relative_strength": -25.631828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.021629, "energy": 20.757386, "activity_lines": [ 10.01, 9.998182, 10.015714, 10.168539 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.75, "volume": 32113900, "typical_volume": 11103770.0, "trend": 10.275867, "fair_value": 22.433892, "relative_strength": -24.104424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.890905, "energy": 37.213454, "activity_lines": [ 9.873333, 9.96, 9.984286, 10.132338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }