{ "ticker": { "uuid": "811cbcad-b3ef-4962-acc5-1ed8f6fefb4d", "symbol": "EDU", "name": "New Oriental Education & Technology", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.611, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.016, "architecture_energy": 41.617, "architecture_maturity": 10.359, "architecture_confidence": 79.366, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.45, "rotation_up": 65.42, "upward_expansion": 40.49, "deceleration": 36.08, "rotation_down": 14.05, "downward_expansion": 17.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.152, 51.240545, 50.216934, 51.148144 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56.43, "trend_reference": 52.741927, "distance_from_trend": 0.069927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.639616, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053817, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.607962, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089681, "excess_performance": -0.215306, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027158, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053817, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050491, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049683, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089681, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.260256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5133726, "relative_activity": 1.442499, "balance": 1.260256, "dry_up": 1.415627, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06537, "annualized_volatility": 0.418745, "from_high_reference": -0.121207, "from_low_reference": 0.275254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.741927, "fair_value_reference": 59.639616, "structural_low": 44.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033843, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018827, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132287, "worst_return": -0.032387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.133673, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.073781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136146, "worst_return": 0.131201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.355277, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.272679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.594808, "worst_return": 0.115747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -39.84239, "energy": 26.373367, "activity_lines": [ 47.916, 47.211455, 49.014758, 50.754694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.24, "volume": 2875883, "typical_volume": 3309828.85, "trend": 52.736347, "fair_value": 59.584321, "relative_strength": -12.672272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.820444, "energy": 23.820855, "activity_lines": [ 48.59, 47.589273, 48.880904, 50.516562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.89, "volume": 7643370, "typical_volume": 3551885.45, "trend": 52.794139, "fair_value": 59.60546, "relative_strength": 3.10531, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 21.932488, "energy": 30.049887, "activity_lines": [ 52.199333, 49.751818, 49.679508, 50.913572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.43, "volume": 5133726, "typical_volume": 3558910.75, "trend": 52.741927, "fair_value": 59.639616, "relative_strength": -4.607962, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.016038, "energy": 41.617269, "activity_lines": [ 54.152, 51.240545, 50.216934, 51.148144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }