{ "ticker": { "uuid": "811d2537-bbf5-498b-beec-7dcf58c6a548", "symbol": "PALASHSECU", "name": "Palash Securities Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.978, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.181, "architecture_energy": 39.955, "architecture_maturity": 5.436, "architecture_confidence": 78.14, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.06, "rotation_up": 10.78, "upward_expansion": 13.49, "deceleration": 47.87, "rotation_down": 61.42, "downward_expansion": 77.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.788, 91.012545, 93.303904, 93.213892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 92.010002, "trend_reference": 93.692, "distance_from_trend": -0.017952, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 121.9275, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.651752, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033711, "excess_performance": 0.009998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017952, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058788, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.246724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10119, "relative_activity": 0.750487, "balance": 1.246724, "dry_up": 0.646469, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079481, "annualized_volatility": 0.289081, "from_high_reference": -0.317433, "from_low_reference": 0.164536 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.692, "fair_value_reference": 121.9275, "structural_low": 79.010002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.011902, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.00144, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.15664, "worst_return": -0.097515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018245, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.067148, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.096229, "worst_return": -0.178585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.036361, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.133401, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.259344, "worst_return": -0.257231, "sufficient": false 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"energy": 34.077732, "activity_lines": [ 91.836666, 93.864727, 94.471762, 94.284559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 88.309998, "volume": 6518, "typical_volume": 14379.45, "trend": 94.678, "fair_value": 122.104872, "relative_strength": -11.355763, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.147433, "energy": 46.199745, "activity_lines": [ 90.437999, 92.554727, 94.00119, 93.833505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.07, "volume": 8388, "typical_volume": 14607.55, "trend": 94.006, "fair_value": 121.999551, "relative_strength": -14.29416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.282188, "energy": 50.303619, "activity_lines": [ 89.137999, 91.25309, 93.417571, 93.342666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.010002, "volume": 10119, "typical_volume": 13483.25, "trend": 93.692, "fair_value": 121.9275, "relative_strength": -9.651752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.18124, "energy": 39.954702, "activity_lines": [ 89.788, 91.012545, 93.303904, 93.213892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }