{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8121a696-a22b-4c90-9c35-97a9428cd47f", "symbol": "300873", "name": "Hichain Logistics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.072, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.418, "architecture_energy": 21.164, "architecture_maturity": 34.681, "architecture_confidence": 71.799, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.23, "rotation_up": 17.51, "upward_expansion": 25.5, "deceleration": 73.33, "rotation_down": 58.93, "downward_expansion": 33.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.242, 19.54587, 18.482295, 17.936239 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.85, "trend_reference": 17.434194, "distance_from_trend": -0.033509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.148103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190972, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.091213, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005935, "excess_performance": -0.013335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033509, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083326, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190972, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095343, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823804, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89867121, "relative_activity": 1.606891, "balance": 0.823804, "dry_up": 1.779006, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.263638, "annualized_volatility": 1.086819, "from_high_reference": -0.497015, "from_low_reference": 0.24171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.434194, "fair_value_reference": 14.148103, "structural_low": 13.57, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007398, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.020065, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.142617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.102801, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.082785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330557, "worst_return": -0.209397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07239, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.03693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316464, "worst_return": -0.301297, 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"Developing", "return": -0.061147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033953, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024124, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041924, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084372, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11028, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", 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15.662361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.209964, "energy": 79.858079, "activity_lines": [ 24.401288, 21.649964, 19.027677, 18.264422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.9, "volume": 115748708, "typical_volume": 50136568.05, "trend": 17.430511, "fair_value": 14.126369, "relative_strength": -6.804624, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.573443, "energy": 48.475446, "activity_lines": [ 21.85643, 20.991186, 18.849932, 18.166496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 86328672, "typical_volume": 52534312.15, "trend": 17.388466, "fair_value": 14.129642, "relative_strength": -13.95458, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.601217, "energy": 11.269704, "activity_lines": [ 19.004667, 20.031388, 18.541143, 17.970979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.85, "volume": 89867121, "typical_volume": 55926075.45, "trend": 17.434194, "fair_value": 14.148103, "relative_strength": -4.091213, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.417597, "energy": 21.163715, "activity_lines": [ 17.242, 19.54587, 18.482295, 17.936239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }