{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8124c350-6ef7-4470-a8a9-61d754bd9a29",
    "symbol": "XMUJ",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan UCITS ETF 2D USD Hedged",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.46,
    "architecture_energy": 36.584,
    "architecture_maturity": 61.658,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.693,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.71,
        "rotation_up": 41.87,
        "upward_expansion": 69.13,
        "deceleration": 82.65,
        "rotation_down": 27.29,
        "downward_expansion": 16.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        69.270334,
        69.433182,
        68.370881,
        66.962323
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 70.695,
    "trend_reference": 65.234647,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.083703,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 47.477184,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.489031,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 8.05647,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.11808,
    "excess_performance": 0.066844,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083703,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.068701,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.489031,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008242,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080565,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055666,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.11808,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 7.389488,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 16850,
      "relative_activity": 0.328,
      "balance": 7.389488,
      "dry_up": 0.454455,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030296,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.20799,
      "from_high_reference": -0.011259,
      "from_low_reference": 0.427297
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 65.234647,
      "fair_value_reference": 47.477184,
      "structural_low": 58.490002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.049232,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020288,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.072107,
        "worst_return": -0.026349,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.061596,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053462,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.174903,
        "worst_return": -0.096045,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.124831,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067687,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.230805,
        "worst_return": -0.030567,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.249209,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.128116,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.259437,
        "worst_return": -0.017956,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.096655,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0045,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.012661,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009401,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034057,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00249,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.075136,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02498,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010279,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030092,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.319845,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.096254,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.069681,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 61.480593,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 61350.05,
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        "relative_strength": 12.402178,
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 46.077591,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.307872,
        "energy": 84.707864,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 57802.0,
        "trend": 63.332511,
        "fair_value": 46.319281,
        "relative_strength": 12.068661,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 70.57,
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        "typical_volume": 59120.1,
        "trend": 63.787777,
        "fair_value": 46.563856,
        "relative_strength": 13.698262,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.80879,
        "energy": 84.924874,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 67.705002,
        "volume": 30438,
        "typical_volume": 58814.55,
        "trend": 64.131626,
        "fair_value": 46.785658,
        "relative_strength": 7.570624,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.087745,
        "energy": 55.328575,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.493334,
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          67.39819,
          66.033214
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 69.5,
        "volume": 23672,
        "typical_volume": 56031.35,
        "trend": 64.547246,
        "fair_value": 47.015159,
        "relative_strength": 8.595245,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.092121,
        "energy": 47.295396,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.355334,
          69.359273,
          67.779524,
          66.379561
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 67.775002,
        "volume": 22425,
        "typical_volume": 54716.35,
        "trend": 64.889947,
        "fair_value": 47.237914,
        "relative_strength": 4.255282,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.61479,
        "energy": 34.092103,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.768001,
          69.139637,
          67.953286,
          66.587803
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 70.695,
        "volume": 16850,
        "typical_volume": 51371.95,
        "trend": 65.234647,
        "fair_value": 47.477184,
        "relative_strength": 8.05647,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.459543,
        "energy": 36.583535,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}