{ "ticker": { "uuid": "812de9c9-ae2e-48e8-88ca-cfa18591d491", "symbol": "002244", "name": "Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.234, "architecture_energy": 22.88, "architecture_maturity": 91.021, "architecture_confidence": 81.107, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.02, "rotation_up": 26.33, "upward_expansion": 15.15, "deceleration": 46.73, "rotation_down": 29.54, "downward_expansion": 62.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.686667, 8.500471, 8.949271, 9.327354 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.5, "trend_reference": 9.828776, "distance_from_trend": -0.135192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.17319, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.754427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.267873, "excess_performance": -0.275272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135192, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054123, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245063, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267873, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.048983, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162056658, "relative_activity": 1.257316, "balance": 1.048983, "dry_up": 1.306979, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114045, "annualized_volatility": 0.450319, "from_high_reference": -0.335938, "from_low_reference": 0.137885 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.828776, "fair_value_reference": 9.17319, "structural_low": 7.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.007429, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.010638, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.397196, "worst_return": -0.158791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046154, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.047662, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.648515, "worst_return": -0.191191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.110955, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.236058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.515385, "worst_return": 0.052972, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -18.89004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.19293, "energy": 71.12264, "activity_lines": [ 8.106133, 8.527549, 9.138032, 9.54359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.6, "volume": 148089954, "typical_volume": 125463774.55, "trend": 9.900443, "fair_value": 9.16493, "relative_strength": -16.800509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.624246, "energy": 45.858521, "activity_lines": [ 8.288667, 8.453837, 9.047778, 9.456444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.28, "volume": 185086002, "typical_volume": 127962782.5, "trend": 9.880443, "fair_value": 9.172328, "relative_strength": -8.355996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.479971, "energy": 27.424602, "activity_lines": [ 8.678, 8.541265, 9.031953, 9.416415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.5, "volume": 162056658, "typical_volume": 128890968.9, "trend": 9.828776, "fair_value": 9.17319, "relative_strength": -19.754427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.233576, "energy": 22.879636, "activity_lines": [ 8.686667, 8.500471, 8.949271, 9.327354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }