{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81358bea-ef33-477a-a14b-3b7b231a8165", "symbol": "SABEVENTS", "name": "SAB Events & Governance Now Media Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.599, "architecture_energy": 62.74, "architecture_maturity": 46.189, "architecture_confidence": 80.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.79, "rotation_up": 13.85, "upward_expansion": 9.99, "deceleration": 57.18, "rotation_down": 70.78, "downward_expansion": 83.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 140.293335, 150.567275, 160.539049, 180.098926 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 132.600006, "trend_reference": 208.000001, "distance_from_trend": -0.3625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 169.157692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.35512, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.533755, "excess_performance": -0.490046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.3625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216116, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.533755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 645, "relative_activity": 0.198709, "balance": 0.220371, "dry_up": 1.80394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16394, "annualized_volatility": 0.799181, "from_high_reference": -0.636712, "from_low_reference": 0.183929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 208.000001, "fair_value_reference": 169.157692, "structural_low": 119.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.028037, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.037265, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.396825, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.020215, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.288288, "worst_return": -0.23, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021759, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.939394, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.192926, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.205841, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"energy": 35.081348, "activity_lines": [ 169.080003, 164.098185, 174.151431, 194.919571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 153.399994, "volume": 8369, "typical_volume": 3210.1, "trend": 212.593334, "fair_value": 168.407692, "relative_strength": -10.672815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.338742, "energy": 39.296902, "activity_lines": [ 164.666667, 162.272729, 170.556192, 191.066668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.400002, "volume": 781, "typical_volume": 3241.15, "trend": 210.406667, "fair_value": 168.74359, "relative_strength": -31.600806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.169774, "energy": 60.860796, "activity_lines": [ 148.773333, 154.876365, 164.577144, 185.118711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.600006, "volume": 645, "typical_volume": 3245.95, "trend": 208.000001, "fair_value": 169.157692, "relative_strength": -25.35512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.598877, "energy": 62.739797, "activity_lines": [ 140.293335, 150.567275, 160.539049, 180.098926 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }