{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8135f0ea-fc41-4105-8542-5ffba4168cf5", "symbol": "ABCOTS", "name": "A B COTSPIN INDIA LIMITED", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.272, "architecture_energy": 89.282, "architecture_maturity": 75.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.969, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.47, "rotation_up": 29.87, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 62.68, "downward_expansion": 99.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 200.388671, 207.172548, 223.094859, 260.048109 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 198.710007, "trend_reference": 309.567336, "distance_from_trend": -0.358104, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 320.151411, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.379325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.427973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.535453, "excess_performance": -0.491744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.358104, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.379325, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.43428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.535453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26867, "relative_activity": 0.103863, "balance": 0.525118, "dry_up": 0.345897, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075677, "annualized_volatility": 0.620798, "from_high_reference": -0.605734, "from_low_reference": 0.009654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 309.567336, "fair_value_reference": 320.151411, "structural_low": 196.809998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007075, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.005742, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.046485, "worst_return": -0.115141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031959, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006619, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.947846, "worst_return": -0.110689, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.684355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.620229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.371882, "worst_return": -0.003171, "sufficient": 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219.173334, 218.016364, 254.50881, 292.811937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 202.899994, "volume": 138654, "typical_volume": 264245.6, "trend": 330.704335, "fair_value": 317.147308, "relative_strength": -43.621477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.615432, "energy": 62.845459, "activity_lines": [ 213.297332, 215.233999, 245.428667, 284.116065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 200.380005, "volume": 153018, "typical_volume": 267751.7, "trend": 323.700336, "fair_value": 318.154872, "relative_strength": -42.38902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.850712, "energy": 82.759755, "activity_lines": [ 207.066667, 212.426728, 237.090191, 275.708044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 198.850006, "volume": 39365, "typical_volume": 264499.75, "trend": 316.588669, "fair_value": 319.146859, "relative_strength": -43.640991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.225474, "energy": 89.821263, "activity_lines": [ 202.872002, 209.683092, 229.606096, 267.653184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 198.710007, "volume": 26867, "typical_volume": 258678.25, "trend": 309.567336, "fair_value": 320.151411, "relative_strength": -43.427973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.271638, "energy": 89.282402, "activity_lines": [ 200.388671, 207.172548, 223.094859, 260.048109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }