{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81369f25-4d61-47e9-9276-44b5bc23fb8a", "symbol": "WAAV", "name": "Wavefront All-Weather Alternative Fund Series ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.784, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.432, "architecture_energy": 67.488, "architecture_maturity": 5.928, "architecture_confidence": 73.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.58, "rotation_up": 16.16, "upward_expansion": 22.79, "deceleration": 43.15, "rotation_down": 74.51, "downward_expansion": 64.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.284, 21.528582, 21.735777, 21.745725 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.219999, "trend_reference": 21.744051, "distance_from_trend": -0.024101, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.318805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044353, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.13356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011113, "excess_performance": -0.131534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024101, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01413, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011113, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.76461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6409, "relative_activity": 0.861442, "balance": 0.76461, "dry_up": 1.683939, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01655, "annualized_volatility": 0.130961, "from_high_reference": -0.053502, "from_low_reference": 0.111518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.744051, "fair_value_reference": 20.318805, "structural_low": 20.790071, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.42, "volume": 10897, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.17, "volume": 20503, "typical_volume": 7577.45, "trend": 21.758318, "fair_value": 20.30754, "relative_strength": -8.726822, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.878142, "energy": 63.274266, "activity_lines": [ 21.38, 21.634419, 21.792441, 21.780455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.219999, "volume": 6409, "typical_volume": 7439.85, "trend": 21.744051, "fair_value": 20.318805, "relative_strength": -11.13356, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.432267, "energy": 67.487971, "activity_lines": [ 21.284, 21.528582, 21.735777, 21.745725 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }