{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81378b64-7083-4079-a8d3-1273f06952ea", "symbol": "INFU", "name": "Amundi US Inflation Expectations 10Y UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.194, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.425, "architecture_energy": 53.899, "architecture_maturity": 49.796, "architecture_confidence": 66.588, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 52.45, "upward_expansion": 82.36, "deceleration": 64.94, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 9.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.672, 122.570545, 121.761047, 120.918795 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 121.830002, "trend_reference": 119.657333, "distance_from_trend": 0.018157, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118.438846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028632, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.835376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049625, "excess_performance": -0.003686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018157, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012755, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588089, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317, "relative_activity": 0.07862, "balance": 0.588089, "dry_up": 0.397689, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008694, "annualized_volatility": 0.067409, "from_high_reference": -0.019398, "from_low_reference": 0.061237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.657333, "fair_value_reference": 118.438846, "structural_low": 115.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.005423, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.00407, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.06644, "worst_return": -0.065572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015727, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005859, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.087879, "worst_return": -0.111624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006654, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050043, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.135985, "worst_return": -0.061526, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", 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120.887952, 119.963806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 122.839996, "volume": 1354, "typical_volume": 4698.5, "trend": 118.969, "fair_value": 118.218205, "relative_strength": 1.048929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.867598, "energy": 82.477465, "activity_lines": [ 122.619999, 122.134909, 121.150333, 120.229053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 123.779999, "volume": 2073, "typical_volume": 4670.5, "trend": 119.249, "fair_value": 118.299743, "relative_strength": 1.417842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.655579, "energy": 88.489045, "activity_lines": [ 123.049998, 122.497636, 121.46738, 120.53944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 122.779999, "volume": 2670, "typical_volume": 4254.5, "trend": 119.481, "fair_value": 118.375449, "relative_strength": -0.885296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.847858, "energy": 71.767943, "activity_lines": [ 123.035999, 122.63709, 121.664571, 120.767247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.830002, "volume": 317, "typical_volume": 4032.05, "trend": 119.657333, "fair_value": 118.438846, "relative_strength": -3.835376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.425143, "energy": 53.898938, "activity_lines": [ 122.672, 122.570545, 121.761047, 120.918795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }