{ "ticker": { "uuid": "813aef93-a0a4-4ea7-9536-de9398a5cb0c", "symbol": "CBRE", "name": "CBRE Group, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 30.218, "architecture_energy": 40.043, "architecture_maturity": 17.973, "architecture_confidence": 43.873, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.95, "rotation_up": 50.54, "upward_expansion": 34.52, "deceleration": 47.81, "rotation_down": 14.03, "downward_expansion": 45.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 2426.193359, 2387.951119, 2365.26868, 2383.417193 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2530.0, "trend_reference": 2456.938338, "distance_from_trend": 0.029737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2212.855302, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.707341, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142373, "excess_performance": -0.087706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029737, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065481, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08082, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142373, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019631, "annualized_volatility": 0.346355, "from_high_reference": -0.157043, "from_low_reference": 0.15 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2456.938338, "fair_value_reference": 2212.855302, "structural_low": 2200.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007131, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024846, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126058, "worst_return": -0.122328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00953, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005506, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152567, "worst_return": -0.192029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054225, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.361198, "worst_return": -0.183678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056132, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016254, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013049, "active": 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"fair_value": 2188.748855, "relative_strength": -13.586665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.157365, "energy": 30.489645, "activity_lines": [ 2347.432031, 2318.42729, 2343.621289, 2404.849358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2374.290039, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 372.75, "trend": 2505.171004, "fair_value": 2194.444336, "relative_strength": -13.292322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.789995, "energy": 35.775033, "activity_lines": [ 2365.33737, 2326.488388, 2344.69615, 2395.256543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2374.290039, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.0, "trend": 2487.363338, "fair_value": 2200.139817, "relative_strength": -12.525255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.63389, "energy": 28.681947, "activity_lines": [ 2374.290039, 2337.847301, 2346.440439, 2386.81261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2374.290039, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.55, "trend": 2469.555672, "fair_value": 2205.835297, "relative_strength": -12.782389, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.5153, "energy": 23.539676, "activity_lines": [ 2374.290039, 2349.873668, 2348.497633, 2379.517559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2530.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.55, "trend": 2456.938338, "fair_value": 2212.855302, "relative_strength": -6.707341, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 30.217765, "energy": 40.043129, "activity_lines": [ 2426.193359, 2387.951119, 2365.26868, 2383.417193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }