{ "ticker": { "uuid": "813b8e0b-1e75-4853-92ef-f02ea39d870a", "symbol": "7742", "name": "Uranus Chemicals Co., LTD.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.928, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.084, "architecture_energy": 38.877, "architecture_maturity": 6.016, "architecture_confidence": 48.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.26, "rotation_up": 18.24, "upward_expansion": 21.68, "deceleration": 53.47, "rotation_down": 58.36, "downward_expansion": 49.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.453333, 113.696363, 132.182381, 131.815914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 117.5, "trend_reference": 117.476667, "distance_from_trend": 0.000199, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.945006, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.100277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.276594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.582317, "excess_performance": 2.140945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000199, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.340981, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.100277, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.107766, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.142766, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.855902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.582317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.6855, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3890297, "relative_activity": 0.759803, "balance": 0.6855, "dry_up": 0.50008, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.255385, "annualized_volatility": 1.720324, "from_high_reference": -0.584806, "from_low_reference": 3.030875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.476667, "fair_value_reference": 55.945006, "structural_low": 32.950001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.518018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.423762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": 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"energy": 48.136788, "activity_lines": [ 109.593334, 124.898182, 143.568572, 132.427204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.199997, "volume": 2610409, "typical_volume": 6626522.15, "trend": 111.436667, "fair_value": 54.729025, "relative_strength": -11.109679, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.899757, "energy": 61.334396, "activity_lines": [ 97.866666, 115.518181, 137.585714, 130.785161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.5, "volume": 2571066, "typical_volume": 6026030.05, "trend": 114.586667, "fair_value": 55.375053, "relative_strength": 26.355575, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.072986, "energy": 51.439885, "activity_lines": [ 103.193333, 114.998182, 135.249524, 131.627957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 117.5, "volume": 3890297, "typical_volume": 5120140.9, "trend": 117.476667, "fair_value": 55.945006, "relative_strength": 14.276594, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.084201, "energy": 38.876724, "activity_lines": [ 107.453333, 113.696363, 132.182381, 131.815914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }