{ "ticker": { "uuid": "813b9d00-8789-4e1f-9dcb-d8c2c86caacb", "symbol": "PIA", "name": "Pengana International Equities Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.579, "architecture_energy": 70.406, "architecture_maturity": 10.958, "architecture_confidence": 81.742, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.26, "rotation_up": 9.37, "upward_expansion": 14.26, "deceleration": 38.21, "rotation_down": 73.46, "downward_expansion": 87.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.162905, 1.180952, 1.204908, 1.207874 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.14, "trend_reference": 1.21532, "distance_from_trend": -0.061975, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.101677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034786, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.060894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082276, "excess_performance": -0.145981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061975, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155022, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082276, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.08601, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 818572, "relative_activity": 0.695709, "balance": 0.08601, "dry_up": 3.188765, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035239, "annualized_volatility": 0.166798, "from_high_reference": -0.123677, "from_low_reference": 0.004405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.21532, "fair_value_reference": 1.101677, "structural_low": 1.135, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013334, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010498, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.139896, "worst_return": -0.09205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003375, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.013413, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.154319, "worst_return": -0.158353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032681, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005752, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.169692, "worst_return": -0.143758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029661, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 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1.166908, "volume": 2286218, "typical_volume": 718676.0, "trend": 1.223753, "fair_value": 1.098659, "relative_strength": -4.139032, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.393593, "energy": 61.544034, "activity_lines": [ 1.188015, 1.206578, 1.217499, 1.217483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.155, "volume": 10379087, "typical_volume": 1174014.55, "trend": 1.220194, "fair_value": 1.100202, "relative_strength": -7.170499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.640898, "energy": 60.0646, "activity_lines": [ 1.177412, 1.194298, 1.211889, 1.213048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.14, "volume": 818572, "typical_volume": 1176600.85, "trend": 1.21532, "fair_value": 1.101677, "relative_strength": -11.060894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.579459, "energy": 70.405673, "activity_lines": [ 1.162905, 1.180952, 1.204908, 1.207874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }