{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "81431e17-0394-4bdb-bab5-574929a499db",
    "symbol": "3086",
    "name": "ChinaAMC NASDAQ 100 ETF",
    "exchange": "HKG",
    "country": "HK",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^HSI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 45.204,
    "architecture_energy": 27.922,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.064,
    "architecture_confidence": 92.486,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.9,
        "rotation_up": 28.32,
        "upward_expansion": 59.15,
        "deceleration": 88.31,
        "rotation_down": 30.22,
        "downward_expansion": 20.49
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        58.912,
        59.36,
        59.080521,
        57.373035
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 60.119999,
    "trend_reference": 55.242238,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.088298,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 43.361615,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38648,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 13.046778,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.211889,
    "excess_performance": 0.24547,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088298,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055005,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.38648,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043632,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.130468,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01363,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.211889,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.049523,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 598379,
      "relative_activity": 1.596543,
      "balance": 1.049523,
      "dry_up": 1.581298,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032857,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.176759,
      "from_high_reference": -0.03931,
      "from_low_reference": 0.283431
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 55.242238,
      "fair_value_reference": 43.361615,
      "structural_low": 46.850269,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.008593,
        "positive_rate": 0.727273,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.727273,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000163,
        "regime_survival": 0.363636,
        "best_return": 0.067149,
        "worst_return": -0.091793,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.0316,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.042176,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.14217,
        "worst_return": -0.119624,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.144482,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.104409,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.213421,
        "worst_return": -0.046113,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.18681,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.089512,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.318221,
        "worst_return": -0.25565,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005322,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.071052,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.045455,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00407,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.122257,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.060763,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.155579,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.071264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.048405,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009709,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024371,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.095705,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.049748,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035124,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 194232.3,
        "trend": 27.715132,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 431429.6,
        "trend": 50.997018,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 411239.3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 423451.95,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 96.904586,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 443380.3,
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        "fair_value": 41.288475,
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        "energy": 94.711942,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 399170,
        "typical_volume": 430705.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 420895.55,
        "trend": 52.705834,
        "fair_value": 41.701446,
        "relative_strength": 24.348919,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 389813.95,
        "trend": 53.024232,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 53.724349,
        "fair_value": 42.277052,
        "relative_strength": 30.653409,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 340600,
        "typical_volume": 363389.25,
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        "relative_strength": 27.934869,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 535025,
        "typical_volume": 372447.65,
        "trend": 54.290549,
        "fair_value": 42.656297,
        "relative_strength": 22.411522,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.949803,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 58.240002,
        "volume": 730479,
        "typical_volume": 383594.15,
        "trend": 54.536958,
        "fair_value": 42.82914,
        "relative_strength": 15.733591,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.052412,
        "energy": 42.667018,
        "activity_lines": [
          59.684001,
          60.115637,
          58.46527,
          56.601819
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 58.080002,
        "volume": 495399,
        "typical_volume": 388969.85,
        "trend": 54.747387,
        "fair_value": 43.000064,
        "relative_strength": 13.072296,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.849299,
        "energy": 32.517316,
        "activity_lines": [
          59.024001,
          59.712364,
          58.643586,
          56.830403
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 58.0,
        "volume": 546405,
        "typical_volume": 361498.45,
        "trend": 54.961811,
        "fair_value": 43.17226,
        "relative_strength": 8.57119,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.102414,
        "energy": 26.161869,
        "activity_lines": [
          58.557334,
          59.324001,
          58.7807,
          57.040249
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 60.119999,
        "volume": 598379,
        "typical_volume": 374796.75,
        "trend": 55.242238,
        "fair_value": 43.361615,
        "relative_strength": 13.046778,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.203777,
        "energy": 27.921523,
        "activity_lines": [
          58.912,
          59.36,
          59.080521,
          57.373035
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}