{ "ticker": { "uuid": "814c5357-8e69-4aae-9372-89c114a47a87", "symbol": "XCLQ", "name": "Cipta ETF Index LQ45", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.975, "architecture_energy": 15.95, "architecture_maturity": 55.518, "architecture_confidence": 74.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.37, "rotation_up": 24.56, "upward_expansion": 18.71, "deceleration": 38.45, "rotation_down": 32.89, "downward_expansion": 55.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.066667, 69.145455, 70.519048, 73.647312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 65.0, "trend_reference": 78.733333, "distance_from_trend": -0.174428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 93.352564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.303715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.640192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.261364, "excess_performance": -0.069107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174428, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092237, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.303715, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.077383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 367400, "relative_activity": 1.946181, "balance": 1.077383, "dry_up": 1.708735, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.274556, "annualized_volatility": 0.48946, "from_high_reference": -0.518519, "from_low_reference": 0.160714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.733333, "fair_value_reference": 93.352564, "structural_low": 56.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.022222, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.176471, "median_excess_return": 0.005587, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.192308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.019087, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.126582, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020408, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123596, "worst_return": -0.032609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146067, "worst_return": -0.081633, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107527, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.048193, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 105.0, "volume": 13400, "typical_volume": 18695.0, "trend": 101.966667, "fair_value": 98.775641, "relative_strength": 1.326502, "stage": 1, 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-49.967003, "energy": 27.077131, "activity_lines": [ 68.066667, 68.127273, 72.414286, 76.406452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.0, "volume": 223500, "typical_volume": 148415.0, "trend": 81.0, "fair_value": 94.012821, "relative_strength": 0.599833, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.930341, "energy": 20.709982, "activity_lines": [ 68.4, 68.018182, 71.714286, 75.584946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.0, "volume": 62100, "typical_volume": 147060.0, "trend": 80.266667, "fair_value": 93.782051, "relative_strength": -1.119435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.816992, "energy": 18.675288, "activity_lines": [ 68.533333, 67.890909, 71.033333, 74.746237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.0, "volume": 637300, "typical_volume": 177560.0, "trend": 79.766667, "fair_value": 93.615385, "relative_strength": 12.537363, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.090101, "energy": 12.811953, "activity_lines": [ 71.933333, 69.781818, 71.385714, 74.6 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.0, "volume": 367400, "typical_volume": 188780.0, "trend": 78.733333, "fair_value": 93.352564, "relative_strength": -8.640192, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.974627, "energy": 15.950466, "activity_lines": [ 70.066667, 69.145455, 70.519048, 73.647312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }