{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81515193-9bb2-4ee4-9483-aa0fe7baf661", "symbol": "UBUR", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Low Volatility UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.104, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.217, "architecture_energy": 54.183, "architecture_maturity": 15.255, "architecture_confidence": 66.985, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.51, "rotation_up": 68.92, "upward_expansion": 81.08, "deceleration": 56.98, "rotation_down": 12.24, "downward_expansion": 7.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.079, 30.864546, 30.284119, 30.100102 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.985001, "trend_reference": 29.888747, "distance_from_trend": 0.036678, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.415203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090437, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.65166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045282, "excess_performance": -0.019358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036678, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021026, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060055, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045282, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.125682, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22844, "relative_activity": 3.798028, "balance": 4.125682, "dry_up": 2.781602, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022256, "annualized_volatility": 0.11308, "from_high_reference": -0.036835, "from_low_reference": 0.102411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.888747, "fair_value_reference": 28.415203, "structural_low": 28.545, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.00727, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": 0.011115, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.062451, "worst_return": -0.069598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00977, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.077124, "worst_return": -0.043154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062918, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.002339, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.127142, "worst_return": -0.082072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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30.616909, 30.066452, 29.945385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.969999, "volume": 7864, "typical_volume": 4873.55, "trend": 29.82121, "fair_value": 28.374521, "relative_strength": -0.105941, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.220081, "energy": 67.261473, "activity_lines": [ 31.106333, 30.752182, 30.175619, 30.025019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.985001, "volume": 22844, "typical_volume": 6014.7, "trend": 29.888747, "fair_value": 28.415203, "relative_strength": -2.65166, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.217304, "energy": 54.182989, "activity_lines": [ 31.079, 30.864546, 30.284119, 30.100102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }