{ "ticker": { "uuid": "815f8f4a-dcae-4dab-8b64-8927934216c4", "symbol": "FSF", "name": "Fonterra Shareholders Fund", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.514, "architecture_energy": 20.946, "architecture_maturity": 38.833, "architecture_confidence": 94.767, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.37, "rotation_up": 22.97, "upward_expansion": 56.08, "deceleration": 85.84, "rotation_down": 28.79, "downward_expansion": 19.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.04, 7.104182, 7.083465, 6.922099 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.0, "trend_reference": 6.655075, "distance_from_trend": 0.051829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.993965, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.752644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.549162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.213364, "excess_performance": 0.185091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051829, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.752644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085492, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.213364, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.232069, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 470186, "relative_activity": 0.934994, "balance": 3.232069, "dry_up": 1.019746, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029901, "annualized_volatility": 0.503528, "from_high_reference": -0.166667, "from_low_reference": 0.454952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.655075, "fair_value_reference": 3.993965, "structural_low": 5.696517, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.241193, "energy": 71.823564, "activity_lines": [ 7.196, 7.187818, 7.057287, 6.839111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.14, "volume": 358243, "typical_volume": 501468.65, "trend": 6.587232, "fair_value": 3.92346, "relative_strength": 12.286263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.844168, "energy": 59.103142, "activity_lines": [ 7.174, 7.183818, 7.082815, 6.877332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.9, "volume": 371754, "typical_volume": 501896.35, "trend": 6.618882, "fair_value": 3.958665, "relative_strength": 8.531802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.842342, "energy": 40.577852, "activity_lines": [ 7.08, 7.132545, 7.080478, 6.89751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.0, "volume": 470186, "typical_volume": 502875.7, "trend": 6.655075, "fair_value": 3.993965, "relative_strength": 8.549162, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.514037, "energy": 20.94644, "activity_lines": [ 7.04, 7.104182, 7.083465, 6.922099 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }