{ "ticker": { "uuid": "816e792d-323c-4064-b6fe-b4900197b07e", "symbol": "TFSL", "name": "TFS Financial Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.754, "architecture_energy": 61.09, "architecture_maturity": 72.896, "architecture_confidence": 89.225, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 62.01, "upward_expansion": 86.45, "deceleration": 65.34, "rotation_down": 23.18, "downward_expansion": 10.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.026, 17.809022, 16.933973, 16.189648 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.59, "trend_reference": 15.316601, "distance_from_trend": 0.148427, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.169627, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445402, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.260622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.224016, "excess_performance": 0.036562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.148427, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445402, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082606, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133872, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.224016, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.687326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6580439, "relative_activity": 1.571886, "balance": 1.687326, "dry_up": 1.177157, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052786, "annualized_volatility": 0.212517, "from_high_reference": -0.097486, "from_low_reference": 0.500918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.316601, "fair_value_reference": 12.169627, "structural_low": 12.994659, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.007349, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.008617, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126238, "worst_return": -0.087349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024042, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046195, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.114243, "worst_return": -0.135337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038752, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.063294, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.113243, "worst_return": -0.093752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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85.376895, "activity_lines": [ 17.462667, 16.891252, 15.942133, 15.366375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.28, "volume": 3372814, "typical_volume": 4029486.3, "trend": 14.841712, "fair_value": 12.042373, "relative_strength": 18.495467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.028258, "energy": 90.026568, "activity_lines": [ 17.8, 17.237841, 16.240161, 15.597871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.19, "volume": 3847732, "typical_volume": 4012724.65, "trend": 14.998879, "fair_value": 12.087598, "relative_strength": 19.226391, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.538783, "energy": 85.372581, "activity_lines": [ 18.016667, 17.50567, 16.506874, 15.81389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.41, "volume": 5910913, "typical_volume": 4057563.1, "trend": 15.176865, "fair_value": 12.13144, "relative_strength": 19.466681, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.16775, "energy": 69.406376, "activity_lines": [ 18.188667, 17.756494, 16.771674, 16.033962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.59, "volume": 6580439, "typical_volume": 4186334.05, "trend": 15.316601, "fair_value": 12.169627, "relative_strength": 8.260622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.753779, "energy": 61.089575, "activity_lines": [ 18.026, 17.809022, 16.933973, 16.189648 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }