{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81708a4a-0264-487e-951a-7283059691eb", "symbol": "XDRE", "name": "Xtrackers Developed Green Real Estate ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.052, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.091, "architecture_energy": 63.267, "architecture_maturity": 29.656, "architecture_confidence": 70.151, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.1, "rotation_up": 63.06, "upward_expansion": 82.3, "deceleration": 64.58, "rotation_down": 17.93, "downward_expansion": 11.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.269334, 26.114818, 25.625667, 25.232134 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.002501, "trend_reference": 24.7295, "distance_from_trend": 0.051477, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.364354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.098304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100402, "excess_performance": 0.049167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051477, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037188, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112913, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038759, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.352016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 324, "relative_activity": 0.087814, "balance": 0.352016, "dry_up": 0.419422, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019261, "annualized_volatility": 0.139049, "from_high_reference": -0.037283, "from_low_reference": 0.180719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.7295, "fair_value_reference": 23.364354, "structural_low": 22.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.023892, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 4.5e-05, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.037085, "worst_return": 0.010699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039684, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 24.3125, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 23.555, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 23.379999, "volume": 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"activity_lines": [ 25.765, 25.409818, 24.950845, 24.645742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3467.05, "trend": 24.289333, "fair_value": 23.221971, "relative_strength": 2.16154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.034848, "energy": 83.459437, "activity_lines": [ 25.766167, 25.492273, 25.040393, 24.735876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.459999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3437.0, "trend": 24.401167, "fair_value": 23.259622, "relative_strength": 4.53369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.939645, "energy": 91.898918, "activity_lines": [ 26.014666, 25.711727, 25.206798, 24.875919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.8825, "volume": 1730, "typical_volume": 3515.3, "trend": 24.53425, "fair_value": 23.301264, "relative_strength": 4.815404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.556381, "energy": 91.868901, "activity_lines": [ 26.345, 25.975591, 25.406405, 25.036005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.215, "volume": 4136, "typical_volume": 3708.1, "trend": 24.64325, "fair_value": 23.334375, "relative_strength": 0.983348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.77505, "energy": 65.353431, "activity_lines": [ 26.3415, 26.076909, 25.531238, 25.144441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.002501, "volume": 324, "typical_volume": 3689.6, "trend": 24.7295, "fair_value": 23.364354, "relative_strength": -0.098304, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.090837, "energy": 63.266979, "activity_lines": [ 26.269334, 26.114818, 25.625667, 25.232134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }