{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81708b14-a302-442d-86c6-94c392386eca", "symbol": "AMPG", "name": "Amplitech Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.204, "architecture_energy": 20.027, "architecture_maturity": 76.419, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.48, "rotation_up": 20.75, "upward_expansion": 52.73, "deceleration": 93.9, "rotation_down": 29.01, "downward_expansion": 18.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.585667, 6.090727, 5.470429, 4.743097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.8, "trend_reference": 4.004833, "distance_from_trend": 0.44825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.440588, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.376476, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 36.346771, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.959459, "excess_performance": 0.772006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.44825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.376074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.376476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.351336, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.363468, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.733469, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.959459, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.65674, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8058140, "relative_activity": 0.502759, "balance": 2.65674, "dry_up": 0.66172, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.339375, "annualized_volatility": 1.458332, "from_high_reference": -0.426311, "from_low_reference": 2.536585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.004833, "fair_value_reference": 2.440588, "structural_low": 1.64, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.052863, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008996, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.225166, "worst_return": -0.162437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075461, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.029725, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.217647, "worst_return": -0.163043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.268116, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.387624, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.446701, "worst_return": -0.426471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.106719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.187963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.543147, "worst_return": -0.32971, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.661996, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.411765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.243243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018605, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.441315, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.252632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.271978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.684524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.261402, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07308, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.84, "volume": 354457, "typical_volume": 277721.55, "trend": 2.564393, "fair_value": 3.583437, "relative_strength": -34.299575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.94274, 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4.467806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.405, "volume": 12421459, "typical_volume": 15361344.7, "trend": 3.875167, "fair_value": 2.401272, "relative_strength": 36.285377, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.119835, "energy": 28.225436, "activity_lines": [ 6.145667, 6.488909, 5.297952, 4.571871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.65, "volume": 9341547, "typical_volume": 15747756.55, "trend": 3.920833, "fair_value": 2.417298, "relative_strength": 15.99393, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.759458, "energy": 20.322917, "activity_lines": [ 5.610667, 6.181727, 5.334405, 4.62186 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.8, "volume": 8058140, "typical_volume": 16027848.95, "trend": 4.004833, "fair_value": 2.440588, "relative_strength": 36.346771, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.204176, "energy": 20.027419, "activity_lines": [ 5.585667, 6.090727, 5.470429, 4.743097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }