{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8176fcc0-7d85-45b5-b511-387f666993cc", "symbol": "603919", "name": "JINHUI LIQUOR Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.787, "architecture_energy": 41.084, "architecture_maturity": 34.828, "architecture_confidence": 80.468, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.04, "rotation_up": 19.44, "upward_expansion": 4.95, "deceleration": 59.4, "rotation_down": 55.18, "downward_expansion": 78.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.843333, 15.970545, 16.956143, 17.535972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.030001, "trend_reference": 18.43735, "distance_from_trend": -0.076331, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.822234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.660673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.212014, "excess_performance": -0.16881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140864, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212014, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.8538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88463378, "relative_activity": 2.287907, "balance": 2.8538, "dry_up": 1.649688, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109585, "annualized_volatility": 0.429758, "from_high_reference": -0.341331, "from_low_reference": 0.22518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.43735, "fair_value_reference": 19.822234, "structural_low": 13.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.00763, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.001591, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.178266, "worst_return": -0.138536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017467, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023711, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.190833, "worst_return": -0.16066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.07503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094757, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.128081, "worst_return": -0.227573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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87.175019, "activity_lines": [ 15.21, 16.642876, 17.424098, 18.056005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.35, "volume": 47469366, "typical_volume": 35251775.7, "trend": 18.669904, "fair_value": 19.897048, "relative_strength": -22.719738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.957401, "energy": 84.814044, "activity_lines": [ 14.693333, 16.053464, 17.088319, 17.765287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.629999, "volume": 74144461, "typical_volume": 37192552.5, "trend": 18.544482, "fair_value": 19.859089, "relative_strength": -10.578695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.024752, "energy": 66.370191, "activity_lines": [ 15.214, 15.954242, 16.99654, 17.63368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.030001, "volume": 88463378, "typical_volume": 38665640.35, "trend": 18.43735, "fair_value": 19.822234, "relative_strength": -10.660673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.787234, "energy": 41.084285, "activity_lines": [ 15.843333, 15.970545, 16.956143, 17.535972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }