{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "817cf6b9-8eb6-4c8e-a7ed-fc2d51c5d93e",
    "symbol": "IEG",
    "name": "Italian Exhibition Group S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 76.779,
    "architecture_energy": 88.881,
    "architecture_maturity": 76.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.641,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 0.69,
        "rotation_up": 84.52,
        "upward_expansion": 99.27,
        "deceleration": 39.35,
        "rotation_down": 8.68,
        "downward_expansion": 21.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.32,
        15.358182,
        14.330547,
        13.617234
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 16.700001,
    "trend_reference": 12.579094,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.3276,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 7.248383,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.303962,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 35.093195,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.578147,
    "excess_performance": 0.407255,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.3276,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.207412,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.303962,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.282009,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.350932,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.160021,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.578147,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.048024,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 73600,
      "relative_activity": 2.151034,
      "balance": 4.048024,
      "dry_up": 2.020248,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.070215,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.300549,
      "from_high_reference": -0.07989,
      "from_low_reference": 1.255995
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 12.579094,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.248383,
      "structural_low": 9.84375,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": 0.013405,
        "positive_rate": 0.62069,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.62069,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001365,
        "regime_survival": 0.793103,
        "best_return": 0.372159,
        "worst_return": -0.112426,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.090909,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": 0.046301,
        "regime_survival": 0.727273,
        "best_return": 0.6,
        "worst_return": -0.072398,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.261949,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.169028,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.937888,
        "worst_return": -0.027237,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.307393,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.125568,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 1.240064,
        "worst_return": 0.221802,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2023-06-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.015686,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011019,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "return": -0.058275,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
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        "return": 0.0525,
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 52807.75,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 37703.85,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 64.327579,
        "activity_lines": [
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          12.127243
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 14.1,
        "volume": 61917,
        "typical_volume": 33152.65,
        "trend": 11.352354,
        "fair_value": 6.816343,
        "relative_strength": 20.751126,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 34421.1,
        "trend": 11.559406,
        "fair_value": 6.894333,
        "relative_strength": 24.029697,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.862834,
        "energy": 57.837576,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.6,
        "volume": 18455,
        "typical_volume": 33306.45,
        "trend": 11.768479,
        "fair_value": 6.972964,
        "relative_strength": 25.863917,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.568643,
        "energy": 61.615621,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.173333,
          13.843636,
          13.284702,
          12.716419
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.8,
        "volume": 93407,
        "typical_volume": 35664.55,
        "trend": 12.010333,
        "fair_value": 7.059467,
        "relative_strength": 35.23869,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.446642,
        "energy": 78.044402,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.806667,
          14.255455,
          13.573769,
          12.976517
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.549999,
        "volume": 91038,
        "typical_volume": 32570.35,
        "trend": 12.308552,
        "fair_value": 7.15665,
        "relative_strength": 47.448605,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.819791,
        "energy": 93.914769,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.856666,
          14.927273,
          14.007232,
          13.333915
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.700001,
        "volume": 73600,
        "typical_volume": 34216.1,
        "trend": 12.579094,
        "fair_value": 7.248383,
        "relative_strength": 35.093195,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.778548,
        "energy": 88.880759,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.32,
          15.358182,
          14.330547,
          13.617234
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}