{ "ticker": { "uuid": "817d69f7-54d2-4227-a4b0-26e55965f05c", "symbol": "2517", "name": "MAXIS J-REIT Core ETF", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.597, "architecture_energy": 19.282, "architecture_maturity": 34.865, "architecture_confidence": 54.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.69, "rotation_up": 36.59, "upward_expansion": 30.15, "deceleration": 44.3, "rotation_down": 25.41, "downward_expansion": 47.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 1120.066667, 1115.990909, 1113.827093, 1125.261628 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1092.0, "trend_reference": 1144.267155, "distance_from_trend": -0.045677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1031.128386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.600262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083176, "excess_performance": -0.292434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021882, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.703258, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88280, "relative_activity": 1.135069, "balance": 2.703258, "dry_up": 1.890485, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026557, "annualized_volatility": 0.118957, "from_high_reference": -0.11544, "from_low_reference": 0.026316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1144.267155, "fair_value_reference": 1031.128386, "structural_low": 1064.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.000334, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008716, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.044079, "worst_return": -0.060955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036332, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.031229, "worst_return": -0.059626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016695, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03817, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033333, "worst_return": -0.030303, "sufficient": true 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1134.0, "volume": 68070, "typical_volume": 69932.5, "trend": 1150.101534, "fair_value": 1029.579243, "relative_strength": -18.64819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.530622, "energy": 23.421451, "activity_lines": [ 1125.9, 1112.509091, 1115.611133, 1129.543604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1140.0, "volume": 362950, "typical_volume": 74848.0, "trend": 1148.269096, "fair_value": 1030.556812, "relative_strength": -17.258581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.674389, "energy": 17.19619, "activity_lines": [ 1132.1, 1119.027273, 1116.919379, 1128.891892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1092.0, "volume": 88280, "typical_volume": 77775.0, "trend": 1144.267155, "fair_value": 1031.128386, "relative_strength": -21.600262, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.596539, "energy": 19.282267, "activity_lines": [ 1120.066667, 1115.990909, 1113.827093, 1125.261628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }