{ "ticker": { "uuid": "817ee0fd-1310-4c30-ad6a-73627e3734a0", "symbol": "ACTG", "name": "Acacia Research Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.244, "architecture_energy": 14.175, "architecture_maturity": 37.489, "architecture_confidence": 71.417, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.72, "rotation_up": 36.08, "upward_expansion": 52.32, "deceleration": 66.59, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 25.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.62, 4.612182, 4.660333, 4.654065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.82, "trend_reference": 4.556, "distance_from_trend": 0.057946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.188205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150851, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.791724, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.147619, "excess_performance": -0.039835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057946, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026344, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027917, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029298, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147619, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84595, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1822227, "relative_activity": 1.485962, "balance": 0.84595, "dry_up": 0.954735, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055458, "annualized_volatility": 0.366709, "from_high_reference": -0.085389, "from_low_reference": 0.539936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.556, "fair_value_reference": 4.188205, "structural_low": 3.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042918, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010753, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.159494, "worst_return": -0.116236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.045666, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.118519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.035443, "worst_return": -0.055888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.104379, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.235091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.081013, "worst_return": -0.127745, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.24844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286076, "worst_return": -0.263473, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013123, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.146789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127937, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005988, "active": false }, { "regime": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.66, "volume": 1058566, "typical_volume": 1451854.2, "trend": 4.497667, "fair_value": 4.177179, "relative_strength": 5.393904, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.887874, "energy": 14.036137, "activity_lines": [ 4.566, 4.610545, 4.682381, 4.639118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.43, "volume": 932608, "typical_volume": 1260256.6, "trend": 4.520667, "fair_value": 4.181731, "relative_strength": -0.421757, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.014547, "energy": 24.334325, "activity_lines": [ 4.519333, 4.573818, 4.651714, 4.634753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.82, "volume": 1822227, "typical_volume": 1226294.1, "trend": 4.556, "fair_value": 4.188205, "relative_strength": 2.791724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.244306, "energy": 14.174655, "activity_lines": [ 4.62, 4.612182, 4.660333, 4.654065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }