{ "ticker": { "uuid": "818b058f-d599-4485-9b35-37693b72d53f", "symbol": "XMCX", "name": "Xtrackers FTSE 250 UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.702, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.56, "architecture_energy": 91.79, "architecture_maturity": 24.624, "architecture_confidence": 68.596, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 86.23, "upward_expansion": 98.48, "deceleration": 39.04, "rotation_down": 9.57, "downward_expansion": 20.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 2274.966667, 2242.25, 2205.981612, 2180.540088 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 2343.25, "trend_reference": 2164.067867, "distance_from_trend": 0.082799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1971.220624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18873, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.83499, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073919, "excess_performance": 0.022684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022873, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.18873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080304, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01835, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046523, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.032192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8705, "relative_activity": 0.833908, "balance": 1.032192, "dry_up": 0.458338, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020697, "annualized_volatility": 0.158309, "from_high_reference": -0.001687, "from_low_reference": 0.216308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2164.067867, "fair_value_reference": 1971.220624, "structural_low": 1926.526974, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.000797, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.011526, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.06584, "worst_return": -0.050828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004968, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.020753, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.078586, "worst_return": -0.032834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018061, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023175, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.098935, "worst_return": -0.050111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 92.560476, "energy": 91.790452, "activity_lines": [ 2274.966667, 2242.25, 2205.981612, 2180.540088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }