{ "ticker": { "uuid": "818c0afe-171a-4820-a1da-bf553c43d5e6", "symbol": "HMCN", "name": "Honda Motor Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.989, "architecture_energy": 82.985, "architecture_maturity": 15.992, "architecture_confidence": 75.822, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.25, "rotation_up": 81.65, "upward_expansion": 63.66, "deceleration": 15.31, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 33.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 515.321334, 495.752182, 473.722885, 476.039548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 527.0, "trend_reference": 490.28058, "distance_from_trend": 0.074895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 558.842138, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.346246, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.049031, "excess_performance": 0.005636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074895, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038855, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203579, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.301951, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049031, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.107143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7, "relative_activity": 0.003124, "balance": 6.107143, "dry_up": 0.080786, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023888, "annualized_volatility": 0.413345, "from_high_reference": -0.150725, "from_low_reference": 0.276029 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 490.28058, "fair_value_reference": 558.842138, "structural_low": 413.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.001382, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.07551, "worst_return": -0.22675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.056012, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.117638, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.084456, "worst_return": -0.230827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0564, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.061033, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.233228, "worst_return": -0.168597, "sufficient": true 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049839, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 33.325615, "energy": 50.521275, "activity_lines": [ 479.203328, 468.074543, 456.636113, 470.844506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 497.200012, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": 2232.15, "trend": 490.377841, "fair_value": 558.744902, "relative_strength": -7.992365, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 28.722644, "energy": 53.691763, "activity_lines": [ 487.962667, 474.808909, 460.079119, 471.215809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 528.5, "volume": 212, "typical_volume": 2242.75, "trend": 490.35421, "fair_value": 558.912222, "relative_strength": -2.51912, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.397841, "energy": 84.045743, "activity_lines": [ 504.342, 486.212363, 466.865661, 473.675303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 527.0, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 2240.5, "trend": 490.28058, "fair_value": 558.842138, "relative_strength": -2.346246, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.989384, "energy": 82.985319, "activity_lines": [ 515.321334, 495.752182, 473.722885, 476.039548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }