{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8190ab0a-cb17-4e1a-8e30-d9df1116cca3", "symbol": "NIBL", "name": "NRB Industrial Bearings Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.001, "architecture_energy": 66.891, "architecture_maturity": 13.549, "architecture_confidence": 86.556, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.54, "rotation_up": 72.91, "upward_expansion": 90.32, "deceleration": 41.98, "rotation_down": 9.39, "downward_expansion": 14.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.7, 33.325273, 32.178667, 31.569247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.720001, "trend_reference": 31.017667, "distance_from_trend": 0.119362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.906474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123389, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.252548, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.197241, "excess_performance": 0.240951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119362, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02461, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.152525, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.368219, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123550, "relative_activity": 0.936264, "balance": 2.368219, "dry_up": 2.457245, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097882, "annualized_volatility": 0.358682, "from_high_reference": -0.14902, "from_low_reference": 0.443059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.017667, "fair_value_reference": 30.906474, "structural_low": 25.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.015061, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.000395, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.2949, "worst_return": -0.233807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027562, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003964, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.378688, "worst_return": -0.337929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.106302, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.13778, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.852423, "worst_return": -0.428428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049326, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198276, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092015, 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.217382, "energy": 66.702372, "activity_lines": [ 33.85, 32.358546, 31.520238, 31.140065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.869999, "volume": 305688, "typical_volume": 129577.35, "trend": 30.927, "fair_value": 30.828462, "relative_strength": 14.044334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.42194, "energy": 61.995679, "activity_lines": [ 34.261333, 32.794546, 31.818048, 31.324538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.720001, "volume": 123550, "typical_volume": 131960.6, "trend": 31.017667, "fair_value": 30.906474, "relative_strength": 15.252548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.0013, "energy": 66.890879, "activity_lines": [ 34.7, 33.325273, 32.178667, 31.569247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }