{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81923bcb-bdf4-416f-8fda-8cf1a66a76a1", "symbol": "ESGY", "name": "BMO MSCI USA Selection Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.027, "architecture_energy": 68.113, "architecture_maturity": 85.593, "architecture_confidence": 76.674, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.02, "rotation_up": 56.35, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.5, "rotation_down": 29.33, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.26, 74.974289, 73.756504, 71.90627 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.139999, "trend_reference": 69.908321, "distance_from_trend": 0.103445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.374228, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344506, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.778476, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.153078, "excess_performance": 0.032656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103445, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03722, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.344506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007785, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016688, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153078, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.823529, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1500, "relative_activity": 0.416667, "balance": 1.823529, "dry_up": 1.798611, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019028, "annualized_volatility": 0.136798, "from_high_reference": -0.008228, "from_low_reference": 0.255547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.908321, "fair_value_reference": 57.374228, "structural_low": 61.709999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.011935, "positive_rate": 0.682927, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.004179, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.061808, "worst_return": -0.078605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.054129, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.012683, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.140109, "worst_return": -0.09269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.090891, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.027276, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.173627, "worst_return": -0.042378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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3120.0, "trend": 68.928219, "fair_value": 56.513419, "relative_strength": 0.983301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.47695, "energy": 74.422039, "activity_lines": [ 74.942755, 74.367013, 72.010604, 70.445927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.760002, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 3200.0, "trend": 69.185174, "fair_value": 56.729837, "relative_strength": 0.405048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.881019, "energy": 71.148386, "activity_lines": [ 75.001674, 74.542514, 72.495178, 70.822171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.110001, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 3090.0, "trend": 69.372804, "fair_value": 56.931221, "relative_strength": -1.950143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.527277, "energy": 62.55538, "activity_lines": [ 74.399267, 74.362604, 72.780567, 71.075385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.75, "volume": 16300, "typical_volume": 3710.0, "trend": 69.638489, "fair_value": 57.144562, "relative_strength": 0.770015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.006049, "energy": 55.111161, "activity_lines": [ 74.464, 74.468169, 73.18031, 71.422301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.139999, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 3600.0, "trend": 69.908321, "fair_value": 57.374228, "relative_strength": 0.778476, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.027194, "energy": 68.112941, "activity_lines": [ 75.26, 74.974289, 73.756504, 71.90627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }