{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8192bfb9-fffa-4d7c-b6bd-05497b1d42e1", "symbol": "3259", "name": "Solid State System Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.212, "architecture_energy": 66.416, "architecture_maturity": 68.421, "architecture_confidence": 88.411, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.7, "rotation_up": 15.0, "upward_expansion": 13.06, "deceleration": 39.69, "rotation_down": 71.94, "downward_expansion": 91.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.61, 15.069091, 15.749762, 16.213978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 13.9, "trend_reference": 16.956666, "distance_from_trend": -0.180263, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.971352, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.420141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.655619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.256685, "excess_performance": -0.698057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.420141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066771, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.496556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256685, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615604, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 154266, "relative_activity": 0.617375, "balance": 0.615604, "dry_up": 0.601994, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098506, "annualized_volatility": 0.258105, "from_high_reference": -0.436105, "from_low_reference": 0.00361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.956666, "fair_value_reference": 23.971352, "structural_low": 13.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.039477, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.054504, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.321429, "worst_return": -0.1939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.103801, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.173828, "worst_return": -0.264286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.186185, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.111307, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.098901, "worst_return": -0.340466, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109827, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016071, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051672, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112245, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.007821, "energy": 57.276479, "activity_lines": [ 15.426667, 15.847272, 16.33119, 16.77258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.95, "volume": 170065, "typical_volume": 371173.2, "trend": 17.443333, "fair_value": 24.204421, "relative_strength": -44.590272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.585559, "energy": 57.197387, "activity_lines": [ 15.22, 15.631818, 16.163571, 16.597527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.8, "volume": 134960, "typical_volume": 357220.2, "trend": 17.201666, "fair_value": 24.096784, "relative_strength": -45.531852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.289499, "energy": 57.780819, "activity_lines": [ 15.023333, 15.414545, 15.99119, 16.426989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.9, "volume": 154266, "typical_volume": 249874.25, "trend": 16.956666, "fair_value": 23.971352, "relative_strength": -49.655619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.212227, "energy": 66.415956, "activity_lines": [ 14.61, 15.069091, 15.749762, 16.213978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }