{ "ticker": { "uuid": "819b08b8-1535-44ff-b727-adc19dde0ab8", "symbol": "SMH", "name": "VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.545, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.769, "architecture_energy": 22.584, "architecture_maturity": 75.017, "architecture_confidence": 91.522, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.15, "rotation_up": 22.63, "upward_expansion": 55.18, "deceleration": 91.11, "rotation_down": 31.71, "downward_expansion": 18.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 565.552, 580.733091, 573.830429, 540.101634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 582.7, "trend_reference": 495.825, "distance_from_trend": 0.175213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 289.363846, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.013728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.969409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.450766, "excess_performance": 0.263312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.175213, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186514, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.013728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.209694, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155238, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.450766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.800062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35796087, "relative_activity": 0.687062, "balance": 0.800062, "dry_up": 1.196896, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098892, "annualized_volatility": 0.393827, "from_high_reference": -0.132667, "from_low_reference": 1.078924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 495.825, "fair_value_reference": 289.363846, "structural_low": 359.862, "invalidation": "A 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601.384364, 548.862048, 509.846289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 611.03, "volume": 49614736, "typical_volume": 50022474.95, "trend": 470.57731, "fair_value": 278.887216, "relative_strength": 30.806532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.476042, "energy": 55.165397, "activity_lines": [ 613.257333, 605.910182, 559.391286, 519.462579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 556.53, "volume": 61775499, "typical_volume": 50848928.1, "trend": 477.290333, "fair_value": 281.481959, "relative_strength": 23.269243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.957952, "energy": 35.067923, "activity_lines": [ 592.449333, 598.686727, 563.796714, 525.007914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 561.19, "volume": 46461614, "typical_volume": 50259845.75, "trend": 483.801333, "fair_value": 284.064132, "relative_strength": 25.160346, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.762231, "energy": 25.146369, "activity_lines": [ 577.423333, 592.492545, 567.930905, 530.420796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 540.53, "volume": 105400990, "typical_volume": 52853292.75, "trend": 489.375667, "fair_value": 286.553402, "relative_strength": 18.941922, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.550764, "energy": 22.029524, "activity_lines": [ 562.09, 582.453818, 569.237333, 534.08071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 582.7, "volume": 35796087, "typical_volume": 52100202.1, "trend": 495.825, "fair_value": 289.363846, "relative_strength": 20.969409, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.768585, "energy": 22.583778, "activity_lines": [ 565.552, 580.733091, 573.830429, 540.101634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }