{ "ticker": { "uuid": "819cfa54-cf4e-4fa4-8c31-9f9e4670cfdb", "symbol": "XMEX", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Mexico UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.314, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.543, "architecture_energy": 18.211, "architecture_maturity": 13.305, "architecture_confidence": 60.432, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.36, "rotation_up": 38.97, "upward_expansion": 63.71, "deceleration": 58.07, "rotation_down": 26.08, "downward_expansion": 14.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 686.333333, 685.072727, 685.422024, 682.659409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 692.25, "trend_reference": 679.3375, "distance_from_trend": 0.019007, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 544.539936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.271257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.038877, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014286, "excess_performance": -0.03695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.271257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000389, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114905, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.642383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61741, "relative_activity": 0.252658, "balance": 2.642383, "dry_up": 0.513984, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027869, "annualized_volatility": 0.20422, "from_high_reference": -0.084906, "from_low_reference": 0.34222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 679.3375, "fair_value_reference": 544.539936, "structural_low": 604.48999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011828, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00069, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.083179, "worst_return": -0.103442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049629, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.068308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115403, "worst_return": -0.173953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.124077, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.075618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211374, "worst_return": -0.200651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 14.915663, "activity_lines": [ 677.883333, 682.663636, 682.454762, 679.940591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 682.0, "volume": 176154, "typical_volume": 283062.35, "trend": 674.483333, "fair_value": 542.315577, "relative_strength": 0.456063, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.268479, "energy": 13.184085, "activity_lines": [ 677.7, 682.261364, 682.925595, 680.55672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 692.0, "volume": 86960, "typical_volume": 266624.85, "trend": 677.175, "fair_value": 543.419744, "relative_strength": 0.471551, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.753922, "energy": 11.817656, "activity_lines": [ 682.108333, 683.7, 684.286905, 681.686828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 692.25, "volume": 61741, "typical_volume": 244366.1, "trend": 679.3375, "fair_value": 544.539936, "relative_strength": 0.038877, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.543473, "energy": 18.210737, "activity_lines": [ 686.333333, 685.072727, 685.422024, 682.659409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }