{ "ticker": { "uuid": "819f35f1-fdee-48d3-bef3-b32254fdc839", "symbol": "ESD", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.57, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.451, "architecture_energy": 68.594, "architecture_maturity": 62.154, "architecture_confidence": 75.42, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.7, "rotation_up": 55.78, "upward_expansion": 82.54, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 28.17, "downward_expansion": 11.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.593333, 30.428636, 30.142905, 29.555516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.4, "trend_reference": 28.8805, "distance_from_trend": 0.087239, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.689462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325484, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.963689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138919, "excess_performance": 0.056036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034674, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005176, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009637, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.096788, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 642987, "relative_activity": 3.537021, "balance": 2.096788, "dry_up": 2.302804, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015617, "annualized_volatility": 0.127979, "from_high_reference": -0.002066, "from_low_reference": 0.224888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.8805, "fair_value_reference": 23.689462, "structural_low": 25.865, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.021223, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.00512, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.064572, "worst_return": -0.083884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.046173, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.021805, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.127354, "worst_return": -0.059717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.097279, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.01182, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.176357, "worst_return": -0.161565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.442776, "energy": 57.269948, "activity_lines": [ 30.18, 30.197455, 29.446429, 28.949635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.49, "volume": 327987, "typical_volume": 119042.3, "trend": 28.517833, "fair_value": 23.365763, "relative_strength": 0.075331, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.495768, "energy": 59.769559, "activity_lines": [ 30.273333, 30.274818, 29.612024, 29.082968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.24, "volume": 546849, "typical_volume": 146248.8, "trend": 28.609167, "fair_value": 23.444609, "relative_strength": -1.49478, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.029435, "energy": 59.145906, "activity_lines": [ 30.283, 30.276091, 29.740738, 29.194075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.129999, "volume": 366779, "typical_volume": 160744.7, "trend": 28.6885, "fair_value": 23.521942, "relative_strength": -1.705559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.776408, "energy": 55.546666, "activity_lines": [ 30.245333, 30.250182, 29.847167, 29.292194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.135, "volume": 117871, "typical_volume": 160775.95, "trend": 28.765, "fair_value": 23.600923, "relative_strength": -1.759517, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.47562, "energy": 47.994571, "activity_lines": [ 30.218, 30.223364, 29.942476, 29.385516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.4, "volume": 642987, "typical_volume": 181787.75, "trend": 28.8805, "fair_value": 23.689462, "relative_strength": 0.963689, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.450868, "energy": 68.593599, "activity_lines": [ 30.593333, 30.428636, 30.142905, 29.555516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }