{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81aaf572-ec53-4fd2-af50-01a90c247bc2", "symbol": "CIP", "name": "Centuria Industrial REIT", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.219, "architecture_energy": 6.489, "architecture_maturity": 17.879, "architecture_confidence": 75.786, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.5, "rotation_up": 27.32, "upward_expansion": 33.7, "deceleration": 37.77, "rotation_down": 24.06, "downward_expansion": 39.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.014667, 3.011797, 2.993622, 2.995838 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.03, "trend_reference": 3.026028, "distance_from_trend": 0.001313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.942628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029692, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.679349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024107, "excess_performance": -0.087812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.581, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4122341, "relative_activity": 0.861809, "balance": 0.581, "dry_up": 1.157534, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031636, "annualized_volatility": 0.137393, "from_high_reference": -0.13281, "from_low_reference": 0.07385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.026028, "fair_value_reference": 2.942628, "structural_low": 2.821623, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008295, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.000939, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.082236, "worst_return": -0.050157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00621, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000845, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.122196, "worst_return": -0.048228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01441, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170896, "worst_return": -0.054139, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010101, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", 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3.011924, 2.987559, 2.977383, 3.00923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.99, "volume": 5624254, "typical_volume": 5018843.25, "trend": 3.059872, "fair_value": 2.935579, "relative_strength": -5.479432, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.410321, "energy": 15.266566, "activity_lines": [ 3.012099, 2.989243, 2.977606, 3.00414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.02, "volume": 5226304, "typical_volume": 4999022.5, "trend": 3.051857, "fair_value": 2.937359, "relative_strength": -4.416583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.381576, "energy": 12.835117, "activity_lines": [ 3.01368, 2.996745, 2.981421, 3.001568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.0, "volume": 7094961, "typical_volume": 5088662.65, "trend": 3.042526, "fair_value": 2.938844, "relative_strength": -4.775131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.706814, "energy": 6.96711, "activity_lines": [ 3.007867, 3.000066, 2.984016, 2.998222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.01, "volume": 5704001, "typical_volume": 4994299.2, "trend": 3.034437, "fair_value": 2.940672, "relative_strength": -6.550825, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.039075, "energy": 5.775151, "activity_lines": [ 3.005333, 3.004659, 2.987969, 2.996124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.03, "volume": 4122341, "typical_volume": 4783359.7, "trend": 3.026028, "fair_value": 2.942628, "relative_strength": -8.679349, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.219458, "energy": 6.488521, "activity_lines": [ 3.014667, 3.011797, 2.993622, 2.995838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }