{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81b0027d-1d92-498b-bfea-d010b3bc268a", "symbol": "CKF", "name": "Collins Foods Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.662, "architecture_energy": 38.218, "architecture_maturity": 81.992, "architecture_confidence": 74.477, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.22, "rotation_up": 27.02, "upward_expansion": 9.7, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 42.43, "downward_expansion": 71.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.023333, 8.025729, 8.16268, 8.433055 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.13, "trend_reference": 8.934759, "distance_from_trend": -0.090071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.997951, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.229554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21902, "excess_performance": -0.282726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086841, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096461, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.003555, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1288870, "relative_activity": 0.822331, "balance": 1.003555, "dry_up": 1.543765, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052858, "annualized_volatility": 0.310601, "from_high_reference": -0.353391, "from_low_reference": 0.064136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.934759, "fair_value_reference": 8.997951, "structural_low": 7.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004449, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.03016, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.127273, "worst_return": -0.186143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.036093, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.065822, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.188889, "worst_return": -0.165812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0663, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.091404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002778, "worst_return": -0.070981, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 1663466.25, "trend": 9.100426, "fair_value": 9.014948, "relative_strength": -19.664411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.942352, "energy": 76.914002, "activity_lines": [ 7.841687, 8.024012, 8.207707, 8.548314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.21, "volume": 2001577, "typical_volume": 1590337.45, "trend": 9.026093, "fair_value": 9.007154, "relative_strength": -16.081067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.749989, "energy": 47.595505, "activity_lines": [ 7.947383, 8.029416, 8.185074, 8.490868 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.13, "volume": 1288870, "typical_volume": 1567337.95, "trend": 8.934759, "fair_value": 8.997951, "relative_strength": -19.229554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.661905, "energy": 38.217939, "activity_lines": [ 8.023333, 8.025729, 8.16268, 8.433055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }