{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81b1cd70-3f1b-4b1f-84a4-87cf4d38a60c", "symbol": "O4B", "name": "OVB Holding AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.22, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.076, "architecture_energy": 85.253, "architecture_maturity": 10.54, "architecture_confidence": 81.004, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.04, "rotation_up": 9.13, "upward_expansion": 21.48, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 75.92, "downward_expansion": 94.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.926667, 19.255709, 19.720999, 20.019397 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.200001, "trend_reference": 20.355031, "distance_from_trend": -0.056744, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.930907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.41976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.087278, "excess_performance": -0.151918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015615, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100131, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087278, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.026573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 829, "relative_activity": 4.510337, "balance": 2.026573, "dry_up": 1.981774, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025132, "annualized_volatility": 0.130556, "from_high_reference": -0.12731, "from_low_reference": 0.075532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.355031, "fair_value_reference": 18.930907, "structural_low": 18.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.004557, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.198347, "worst_return": -0.078432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05914, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.030633, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.143681, "worst_return": -0.130841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000116, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053473, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121495, "worst_return": -0.086762, "sufficient": 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"fair_value": 18.954567, "relative_strength": -8.439697, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.00542, "energy": 72.3151, "activity_lines": [ 19.743333, 20.015642, 20.281099, 20.401999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 214, "typical_volume": 300.7, "trend": 20.362772, "fair_value": 18.945905, "relative_strength": -7.892185, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.113819, "energy": 93.217936, "activity_lines": [ 19.333333, 19.770731, 20.119671, 20.301762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.6, "volume": 375, "typical_volume": 284.95, "trend": 20.361986, "fair_value": 18.939361, "relative_strength": -9.592206, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.576197, "energy": 94.456643, "activity_lines": [ 18.98, 19.516075, 19.948004, 20.188035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.9, "volume": 39, "typical_volume": 191.0, "trend": 20.3519, "fair_value": 18.934739, "relative_strength": -9.694496, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.207421, "energy": 88.321907, "activity_lines": [ 18.86, 19.346219, 19.813752, 20.093713 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 829, "typical_volume": 183.8, "trend": 20.355031, "fair_value": 18.930907, "relative_strength": -10.41976, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.075805, "energy": 85.25334, "activity_lines": [ 18.926667, 19.255709, 19.720999, 20.019397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }