{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81b26446-b395-41cd-94b8-f02376a9c152", "symbol": "600815", "name": "Xiamen XGMA Machinery Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.19, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.322, "architecture_energy": 30.321, "architecture_maturity": 42.332, "architecture_confidence": 79.081, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.24, "rotation_up": 25.51, "upward_expansion": 15.9, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 35.14, "downward_expansion": 63.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.914667, 2.833091, 3.154857, 3.291075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.28, "trend_reference": 3.38, "distance_from_trend": -0.029586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.774872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.389709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051282, "excess_performance": 0.094486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081522, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.615887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.402821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051282, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.702302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 556252308, "relative_activity": 1.414325, "balance": 0.702302, "dry_up": 0.932113, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140947, "annualized_volatility": 0.706056, "from_high_reference": -0.358121, "from_low_reference": 0.470852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.38, "fair_value_reference": 2.774872, "structural_low": 2.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.002974, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.226316, "worst_return": -0.152174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001577, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038601, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.356383, "worst_return": -0.168142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043165, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058624, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.414894, "worst_return": -0.20339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141892, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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"close": 2.46, "volume": 232667616, "typical_volume": 379981150.55, "trend": 3.445333, "fair_value": 2.769231, "relative_strength": -21.960997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.675171, "energy": 77.141232, "activity_lines": [ 2.615333, 2.836727, 3.299, 3.377742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.71, "volume": 282825880, "typical_volume": 382774840.6, "trend": 3.412333, "fair_value": 2.769423, "relative_strength": -15.020812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.893085, "energy": 65.381785, "activity_lines": [ 2.632667, 2.763636, 3.224429, 3.330301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.91, "volume": 394650360, "typical_volume": 394240878.15, "trend": 3.385667, "fair_value": 2.770962, "relative_strength": -9.056485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.713925, "energy": 47.293016, "activity_lines": [ 2.723333, 2.755818, 3.171476, 3.297892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.28, "volume": 556252308, "typical_volume": 393298726.65, "trend": 3.38, "fair_value": 2.774872, "relative_strength": -0.389709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.32196, "energy": 30.32112, "activity_lines": [ 2.914667, 2.833091, 3.154857, 3.291075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }