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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.318, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.98, "architecture_energy": 20.285, "architecture_maturity": 36.445, "architecture_confidence": 71.135, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.42, "rotation_up": 29.33, "upward_expansion": 16.67, "deceleration": 42.48, "rotation_down": 28.35, "downward_expansion": 62.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.157998, 84.768941, 88.265951, 89.456758 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 85.199997, "trend_reference": 90.149177, "distance_from_trend": -0.0549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.823357, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.485141, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.046019, "excess_performance": -0.002816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019434, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024851, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.96439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32662194, "relative_activity": 1.520678, "balance": 0.96439, "dry_up": 1.460342, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078307, "annualized_volatility": 0.41962, "from_high_reference": -0.229693, "from_low_reference": 0.225723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.149177, "fair_value_reference": 84.823357, "structural_low": 78.0, 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20299986.6, "trend": 89.66451, "fair_value": 85.465768, "relative_strength": 5.509346, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.134374, "energy": 29.147187, "activity_lines": [ 83.513332, 84.244291, 88.86543, 89.748781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.889999, "volume": 32860369, "typical_volume": 20805221.25, "trend": 89.951843, "fair_value": 85.149593, "relative_strength": 11.286365, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.192296, "energy": 22.558654, "activity_lines": [ 85.954666, 84.861476, 88.796405, 89.763329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.199997, "volume": 32662194, "typical_volume": 21478705.1, "trend": 90.149177, "fair_value": 84.823357, "relative_strength": 2.485141, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.97985, "energy": 20.285058, "activity_lines": [ 86.157998, 84.768941, 88.265951, 89.456758 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }